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‘Fire and Rain’ at summer camp in the U.S., plus the Rivian rollout turning heads

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Source: David McNew / Getty Images News via Getty Images

(A native of England, veteran journalist Matthew Diebel has worked at NBC News, Time, USA Today and News Corp., among other organizations.)

This memory just came floating into my mind: that James Taylor was in the audience when my son and I sang at a campfire concert at a YMCA sleepaway camp in Western Massachusetts.

Yup. In about 2015 I had brought my guitar to Dads’ Weekend — where fathers and boys camp in tents for a couple of nights — and my son and I did a jaunty tune called “One Wheel on My Wagon” for the boys, dads and counselors who were assembled around a blazing pile of logs. Then, the next morning, I noticed a tall, balding man – and realized he was Taylor. I quizzed my son, who said that one of the singer’s sons was at the camp. And then I thanked the heavens above that we hadn’t sung “Sweet Baby James” or “Mudslide Slim.”

Talking of mudslides, the reminiscing came after reading a New York Times story last week about how camps like my son’s — normally relatively cool from their high latitudes and elevations — are dealing with the extreme weather that has hit the U.S. in recent years…

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By David Callaway

20 Beloved Foods That Could Disappear Forever Because of Climate Change

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Source: gilaxia / iStock via Getty Images

Scientists estimate that July 4th this year was the hottest day on earth since global temperatures were first recorded around 1880, and possibly the hottest in the past 125,000 years. “Looking to the future, we can expect global warming to continue and hence temperature records to be broken increasingly frequently, unless we rapidly act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero,” Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at London’s Grantham Institute, told the Washington Post.

Soaring temperatures are only one result of climate change. Others include rising sea levels and flooding, drought and also devastatingly heavy rainfall, more (and more violent) typhoons and hurricanes, increased threat of wildfires, salinization of freshwater, and proliferation of pests and diseases.

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the world is full of climate change deniers, including prominent American politicians (many with ties to the fossil fuel industry) like Marco Rubio, Mitch McConnell, and Ted Cruz – and of course Donald Trump, who once tweeted that “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”

Whatever politicians and other skeptics might maintain, however, it’s probably safe to say that nobody in the agricultural sector – whether the owner of a small family farm or the CEO of an agribusiness giant – is unaware of the very real effects of climatological disruption on their livelihood.

To compile a list of 20 crops or food products that are particularly susceptible to the negative effects of climate change, 24/7 Tempo reviewed articles on a variety of online publications, including Food Politics and Civil Eats, as well as the websites of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Food and Drug Administration.

Click here to see 20 foods endangered by climate change

The list is by no means exhaustive: Virtually anything that grows or is raised anywhere in the world is likely to feel some impact from increasing or unpredictable heat, cold, drought, rainfall, high winds, and other climatic conditions. No major crop has yet disappeared entirely due to these factors, but their quantity and quality is already being affected.

EU climate lead at risk as Timmermans may depart to run for Dutch PM

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Source: UWMadison / iStock via Getty Images

LONDON (Callaway Climate Insights) — Climate shocker in Europe earlier today after EU climate envoy Frans Timmermans said he plans to run for prime minister in his home country, the Netherlands, whose government just collapsed.

Timmermans, the architect of Europe’s Green New Deal, and a polarizing figure in EU politics, has applied to be a candidate for the Socialist-Green ticket. While the ticket has not yet accepted him, if it did, he would likely have to resign from the EU.

Timmermans’ potential departure would roil geopolitical climate leadership just as it faces one of its biggest tests yet this November at the United Nations COP28 climate summit in Dubai, which is being hosted by an oil executive and is sinking in controversy. Aside from Timmermans, the other two global climate leaders, John Kerry of the U.S. and Xie Zhenhua of China, only just started talking again this week after months of political standoff.

Without strong leadership from Europe, the U.S., and China, global climate cooperation could disintegrate just as the effects of climate change are starting to bite around the globe this summer. Word is that Kerry might leave the Biden Administration after next year’s presidential election. If Timmermans leaves, even if he becomes Dutch Prime Minister, political leadership will be at its lowest point since before the Paris Agreement of 2015.

And if he does leave, the EU will need to rapidly appoint a successor. A more important appointment could not be imagined. Watch this space.

What a company’s Implied Temperature Rise can — and can’t — tell investors

. . . . One of the tools investment analysts have come up with to measure a company’s contributions to climate change is Implied Temperature Rise (ITR), which supposedly calculates how closely a company or entity’s emissions are in keeping with the Paris Agreement goals of limiting the rise in global average temperature to no more than 1.5°C. above pre-industrial levels (we’re at 1.2°C. now). But Mark Hulbert’s deep dive into ITR reveals it’s plagued by inconsistencies that render it as bad — or worse — than the hodgepodge of ESG data now out there. Check out his findings as investors continue to struggle to find the most effective data. . . .

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Why Tesla shares are now an interest rate play

. . . . Financial stocks are usually those most associated with interest rate plays, but as of this week add Tesla TSLA to that list. The leading U.S. electric vehicle maker has been cutting prices for months now and that has led to a decline in profit margins, which were announced yesterday.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk told analysts that he’d rather make more cars and sell them for lower prices, and that he might even cut prices again to insure people can afford his sports cars if interest rates rise further, which most market followers expect. The quip, somewhat overlooked by some of the earnings stories, signals that the brief era of Tesla price cuts — and maybe across the industry — might be coming to an end as the rate cycle turns either later this year or early next.

The market is currently forecasting two more rate rises by the Federal Reserve, and with inflation numbers continuing to come down, even that is subject to debate. Tesla shares, up about 137% this year even with today’s decline on profit margins, have held up rather well during the price cuts. And the company stuck to its guns on the earnings call regarding its pledge to sell 1.8 million cars this year.

With the company’s long-awaited Cybertruck, yet to be priced, set to debut next year, likely in tandem with the end of the rate-rise cycle in the U.S., it’s not a stretch to see the shares, still well off their 2021 highs, advancing further. Barring production difficulties in the U.S. or China.

The message to investors is that Tesla shares, like the financials, and perhaps the utilities, are going to be the early signs that the rough couple of years or rate rises might be coming to an end.

Has the heat hurt your vacation? Go north

. . . . Here’s another result of climate change: More people are vacationing in cooler climes, with places like Denmark seeing a surge in interest. After all, it’s sweltering in places like Italy, Greece and Spain. Is Canada next? Maybe without the smoke. Read more here. . . .

Why the U.S. offshore wind scene is both buffeted and breezy

. . . . There’s good news and bad in the U.S.’s very slow journey to offshore wind power. First, the Biden administration announced the first offshore wind power development rights sale in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. And then renewables giant Avangrid $AGR said it was pulling out of an offshore project near Massachusetts (and paying a big price for breaking its contract). Read more here. . . .

Editor’s picks: Growth in electricity demand seen easing; plus, a heat wave in the ocean

IEA: Growth in electricity demand will ease in 2023

EU electricity demand is set to drop to its lowest level in 20 years, but with global consumption expected to increase strongly in 2024, growth of renewables is more important than ever. The International Energy Agency says in its latest Electricity Market Report that “overall growth in electricity demand worldwide is expected to ease in 2023 as advanced economies grapple with the ongoing effects of the global energy crisis and an economic slowdown.” Electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to decline by almost 2% this year while demand in Japan is forecast to fall by 3%. Electricity demand in the European Union is set to drop by 3%, similar to the decrease recorded in 2022.

Florida’s in very, very hot water

Ocean temperatures around Florida have soared five degrees above normal since early July, prompting worries about hurricanes, coral bleaching and record heat on land. A report from NPR notes the warming is being attributed to climate change colliding with the El Nino weather pattern. “Normally when you break records, you break records by a tenth of a degree, maybe a quarter of a degree. … Here, we’re breaking it by five degrees,” Ben Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist with the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, told NPR. How hot is it? Waters around Florida average about 88°F. in summer. But this month, temperatures in the low 90s have been recorded and in Florida Bay, temperatures rose above 98°F.

Climate change and corporate governance

Investors today hold directors accountable for a much wider range of issues, such as climate change and board diversity, than in the past, write the authors of Why do Investors Vote Against Corporate Directors? From the abstract: “Within environment, climate change is the only subcategory that is significantly associated with voting outcome. … Within governance, board diversity is significantly related to voting outcome. However, we find that social issues are not relevant for voting outcomes. Institutional investors have started providing rationale for why they voted against a particular director. The existence of such rationale related to board diversity, busyness, tenure, and independence result in more dissent votes. Female directors receive fewer dissent votes but not so if they are long-tenured. The mere presence of a shareholder proposal is associated with lower support for directors. This effect is driven by governance and not socially responsible proposals.” Authors: Reena Aggarwal, Georgetown University – Robert Emmett McDonough School of Business; European Corporate Governance Institute; Sandeep Dahiya, Georgetown University – Department of Finance; Umit Yilmaz, Georgetown University – McDonough School of Business

Words to live by . . . .

“The one process now going on that will take millions of years to correct is the loss of genetic and species diversity by the destruction of natural habitats. This is the folly our descendants are least likely to forgive us.” — E. O. Wilson, American biologist.

By David Callaway

25 Countries Emitting the Most CO2

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Source: baona / iStock via Getty Images

The world has experienced so far this year record-shattering heat waves across Asia and the Mediterranean, an unprecedented month-long cyclone that walloped Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique, an unusually active wildfire season in Canada that rang air-quality alarms bells across much of the United States, and a ruthless early-summer heat dome over much of Texas and Mexico. And we are only half way through the year.

These are just some of the many ongoing freakish weather events in 2023 that illustrate a new normal — a world with more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves, heavy rainfall, severe storms, and flooding. (Here are 20 islands that will disappear in your lifetime.)

Just this month, a group of climate experts warned that keeping the target of long-term global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels by the end of the century is quickly slipping out of reach. To achieve that, “greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030,” according to the U.N. Climate Change secretariat. But which countries need to step up the most? 

To find the countries emitting the most CO2 (carbon dioxide is one of the main greenhouse gasses), 24/7 Wall St. reviewed Global Carbon Budget 2022 by Friedlingstein et al. (2022b) published at Earth System Science Data. The study estimates national emissions from fossil fuel combustion and oxidation and cement production and excludes emissions from bunker fuels (fuels used for international aviation and maritime transport). Countries are ranked by total CO2 emissions.

Not surprising, larger economies and countries with large populations tend to emit more CO2 each year. This includes the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States, which are also the world’s two largest CO2 emitters, making up 44.4% of the global share of CO2 emissions. As relations between China and the U.S. are thawing, questions about whether the two largest CO2 emitters can cooperate in fighting climate change are swirling. 

So far, out of the 25 countries emitting the most carbon dioxide emissions, seven have reduced emissions since the start of the century. Notably, the U.S. is emitting 17% less CO2 than in 2000 as the country moves away from coal toward cleaner natural gas. Wind and solar power generated more electricity than coal in the first five months of the year, according to preliminary government data reviewed by Scientific American’s E&E News. (Despite the progress, several U.S. cities rank among the worst cities to live as climate change gets worse.)

Other major emitters such as India and Russia, however, are nowhere near the point where they can reduce their heavy dependence on fossil fuels. In fact, only three of the top 10 emitters — countries responsible for nearly 60% of emissions — have reduced CO2 output since 2000. 

But whatever progress is being made, those efforts may not be enough to keep warming below the 1.5-degree threshold. If temperatures did rise above the threshold, it would trigger a “cascade of tipping points” that would “irreversibly alter the global climate system,” the Yale School of the Environment reported in March. Those issues and more will be discussed in November at the 28th annual U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai. 

Here are the countries emitting the most carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Click here to see 25 countries emitting the most Co2.

Click here to read our detailed methodology.

What a company’s Implied Temperature Rise can – and can’t – tell investors

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Source: billnoll / E+ via Getty Images

(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — Climate data providers now report the temperature rise that is implied by a company’s greenhouse gas emissions.

This would appear to be a huge step forward, especially with heat records being broken almost daily around the globe. The temperature rise implied by each company’s operations would, finally, allow you to construct a portfolio that is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s objective of limiting global warming growth to 1.5°C. or 2.0°C.

I say “finally” because up until now the investment tools available to climate-focused investors have shed more heat than light. There is such wide disagreement between different ESG rating agencies that many just throw up their hands. Take the iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF $ESGU , which is one of the largest ESG-focused exchange-traded funds; according to the iShares website, the ETF focuses on “U.S. companies that have positive environmental, social and governance characteristics.” One of this ETF’s biggest holdings is ExxonMobil $XOM .

Unfortunately, according to new research, the Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) data aren’t any more consistent than the ESG data…

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By David Callaway

Largest Rain Storms Ever Recorded on Earth

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Source: RomoloTavani / Getty Images

Extreme weather is increasing as humans, in their pursuit of economic growth and prosperity, continue to release billions of tons of fossil fuel-sourced carbon dioxide emissions and other gasses into the atmosphere. This blanket of greenhouse gasses is causing climate change, and one of the many impacts of warming the planet is more moisture in the air, which increases the strength and frequency of devastating floods from the rice fields of Bangladesh to downtown Houston.

Setting aside human-caused global warming that is quickly becoming an existential threat to people in many parts of the world, heavy rainfall has always been part of the Earth’s natural cycles. In fact, out of the 30 heaviest periods of precipitation on record, only one has been recorded since 2000, while some of these outlier downpours date back to 1860.

To identify the heaviest rain storms ever recorded in the world, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center World Record Precipitation Measurements, published by the National Weather Service. Data was last updated by the NWS on Nov. 10, 2021. Some data are estimates. 

These all-time record cloudbursts range from the 1.23 inches of rain that fell in just one minute in Unionville, Maryland, on the Fourth of July in 1956, to a staggering 133 feet of rain that fell in eastern India over a two-year period in 1860 and 1861.

Some of these 30 heavy precipitation events created multiple records for amount of rain over time. For example, heavy rainfall in the Commerson Crater of Réunion in January 1980 generated a 10-day and 15-day precipitation record of 224 inches and 250 inches of rainfall, respectively. The island, an overseas department of France located 422 east of Madagascar, also holds a record for the most rain over an eight-day period, at 217 inches, after it was struck by Cyclone Gamede in February 2007. (Speaking of islands, here are 20 islands that will disappear in your lifetime.)

Cherrapunji, in the eastern Indian state of Meghalaya, holds by far the highest number of consecutive rainfall records. In 1860 and 1861, a stream of heavy tropical deluges gave Cherrapunji (known officially by its traditional name Sohra since 2007) all-time rainfall records in 48 hours, one month, two months, three months, four months, 11 months, 12 months, and two years. This helps to explain why Meghalaya is considered the wettest place on Earth.

These 30 all-time heaviest periods of precipitation occurred in nine countries, led by India and China, including Inner Mongolia. Five have been recorded in the United States, dating from 1935, when Woodward Ranch, Texas, received 22 inches of rain in less than three hours. (See worst floods in American history.)

Here are the heaviest rain storms ever recorded.

Carbon capture deals gain traction as climate pressure soars

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Source: Yelantsevv / iStock via Getty Images
— Carbon capture deals are gaining traction on Wall Street. Does it matter?
— A novel idea for fixing the U.S.’s aging grid infrastructure could bypass political debate
— Why Ford is the latest EV sticker slasher
— Here are the longest-range electric vehicles sold in America. How does yours stack up?
— Heat dome tourism? Why people are flocking to Death Valley to check out the end of the world.

As delegates to this year’s United Nations COP28 climate conference in Dubai argue about whether to “phase down” or “phase out” fossil fuels, and the U.S. and China play footsie over who will look politically weakest if they agree to cooperate on global warming, and the heat index in Iran hits 152°F. (66°C.) this week at the Persian Gulf International Airport, Wall Street is moving in another direction.

In less than a week, we’ve seen two massive deals in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) sector. Following Exxon Mobil’s $XOM $5 billion purchase of carbon capture and pipeline company Denbury last week, private equity firm EnCap Flatrock sold Elysian Carbon Management of Oklahoma City to oil and gas infrastructure company Buckeye Partners of Houston. Terms weren’t announced, but EnCap had invested $350 million in Elysian in 2021.

Investors have flocked to back carbon capture and storage startups and companies in the past few years and now we’re starting to see those turn into bigger deals as assets start to change hands. Even as the debate rages about whether the scale of carbon capture will ever evolve into enough to have a meaningful impact on global warming, and whether these deals are anything more than financial fiddling as the world burns. With private equity as Emperor Nero.

Looking at the collective noise around all of these negotiations and deals, while watching heat and flood and fire disasters rise like a tsunami around the world, it’s hard to see whether any of this represents meaningful progress in mitigating what are only going to be worse climate developments in coming years.

But it’s clear that this record hot summer, admittedly combined with a rebound in equity markets, has grabbed investor attention on the theme of decarbonization, and that money, if not political discussion, is at last moving forward.

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By David Callaway

What You Should Never Do When It Is Hot Outside

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Source: kosziv / iStock via Getty Images

Every year, the news seems to be the same – the year was the hottest on record. July 3, 2023 was declared the hottest day on Earth ever recorded, with an average global temperature that reached 62.6 F.

The rise of the planet’s average temperature is expected to continue and accelerate over the coming decades. Summers are already getting hotter faster, especially in parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The average summer temperature in some Southern states reach the mid 80s, and days with 100 degrees Fahrenheit or hotter temperatures are not uncommon – these are the 50 hottest cities in America.

Scorching heat waves have become commonplace in the summer across the United States. Temperatures soar, basically trapping people inside air-conditioned spaces. But since summer is a time to be outside and enjoy the outdoors, it’s hard to stay in all day. So many people go out, and some come back with sunburns and other health issues because they didn’t take the proper precautions.

Sun and heat-related illnesses are among the most prevalent of summer injuries. Over 600 people in the United States are killed by extreme heat every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Extreme heat can lead to dehydration and sunburn, which can be prevented, said Dr. Bonnie Simmons, emergency medicine doctor in Brooklyn, New York. “The key in heat is liquid, liquid, liquid.”

Some habits that may put your health in danger are exercising outside, exposing too much skin to the sun, and drinking even a moderate amount of alcohol without eating or drinking a lot of water. Dehydration, if untreated, can lead to serious health complications. These are the signs you’re way too dehydrated.   

Click here to read about 11 things you should never do when it’s hot outside

To identify unsafe behaviors during hot summer days, 24/7 Tempo consulted an urgent care doctor and reviewed several sources including the CDC, National Health Institutes, National Fire Protection Association, and the Food and Drug Administration.

Wall Street shifting gears back to climate finance after ESG backlash

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Source: SeppFriedhuber / Getty Images

After more than a year of keeping a low profile around all things ESG because of political backlash, Wall Street is quietly shifting gears for another run at climate finance, perhaps spurred by investor demand tied to record heat and wildfire smoke this summer.

BlackRock $BLK , which once led the charge toward the climate transition before being attacked by red state anti-climate leaders, returned last week in the form of a midyear investment report with its prediction that the move to a lower-carbon economy will require a “massive reallocation of capital as energy systems are rewired.”

As if on cue, the New York Times then floated one well-known economist’s idea for a carbon-linked bond, which would act like a green corporate bond and tie the federal government to its carbon commitments through rising yields. An intriguing, market-based idea that would attempt to hold governments to their promises, which would encourage more investment.

The renewable energy trade on Wall Street, which has been dormant since oil surged with the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, is not quite back in action, though some of the renewable companies have begun to see attention during the second quarter tech rally. But as billions from President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act continue to flow into the economy, it’s only a matter of time for a rotation.

The Intercontinental Exchange in London this morning unveiled new futures contracts tied to decarbonization of the environment (see below). And S&P Global, also today, cited a study in the academic journal Science in its morning report, saying U.S. emissions are on track to fall between 43% and 48% by 2035 from 2005 levels, in part thanks to investments spurred by the IRA. That might not be in time to prevent what we’re seeing this summer, but it’s good to see Wall Street paying attention again.

The unavoidable greenwashing of Scope 4 emissions

. . . . With all the controversy around the reporting of Scope 3 emissions, or the pollution from a company’s supply chain, little has been said about Scope 4 emissions, and there may be a reason for that, writes Mark Hulbert. The vagueness around Scope 4, which is supposed to be the amount of “avoided emissions” from using a company’s products versus those of another company, appears to be a marketer’s dream. Because they are so difficult to accurately report, the potential for greenwashing by companies in how they record them is just about unavoidable. . . .

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Offshore wind race in the U.S. sees an early leader

. . . . The U.S. has been super-slow to the offshore wind power game, with a slew of projects on the East Coast being held up by federal, state and local reviews, leading, in part, to major developers getting cold feet. But that may not be the case in Louisiana, where proposed projects are in state waters and the regulatory environment is much friendlier. Plus, there is expertise nearby because of the state’s many offshore oil installations. Read more here. . . .

Why there’s a growing green love affair in the Lone Star State

. . . . In the end, money talks. And that’s what’s happening in heat-stricken Texas, where not only have renewables kept air conditioners running but have also kept energy prices stable. Another benefit: Locally produced renewable energy protects consumers from the vagaries of the fossil fuel markets. Read more. . . .

Rivian share surges 50% in one week

. . . . Electric vehicle investors should circle Tuesday, Aug. 8 on their calendars, as that’s when EV truck and SUV maker Rivian $RIVN reports second-quarter results. And that’s when we’ll see whether the company’s 50% surge in shares in the past week was worth the effort.

Rivian announced the earnings date last week along with guidance on second quarter production that beat estimates and kept the company on track to meet its prediction to roll 50,000 vehicles off production lines this year.

Rivian’s EVs are the darlings of automotive first adapters, creating a stir and turning heads much like the early Teslas did when they hit the roads. But while Tesla $TSLA produced almost half a million vehicles last quarter, Rivian’s production of 24,337 in 2022 seemed so far off that investors put it into the bucket of EV startups who would never generate the scale they needed to compete with the big boys.

It’s announcement that it made 13,392 now seems to put it in line to double production this year over last. This past week’s jump in shares shows that investors, at least for now, are willing to give it a chance. . . .

Late-breaking dispatches

. . . . Sad news to report from the UK. Cervest, the London-based climate intelligence firm run by entrepreneur Iggy Bassi, announced this morning it will close shop after seven years and sell its intellectual property and assets to Mitiga Solutions. The company developed a remarkable software program that could analyze any physical asset in the world — from a building to a city — and determine what the onset of global warming would do to it over the next 30 years. We assume we’ll see Bassi again, and that this form of climate intelligence will be carried on by others as financial demand to forecast heat, flooding and fire climbs. . . .

. . . . The Intercontinental Exchange this morning unveiled what it called the first environmental futures market, with contracts launching this quarter and trading on information from Alberta, Canada’s carbon reduction program. ICE has been at the forefront of carbon trading products in the past few years, and this one takes it into what many expect will be a new era of trading based on advances in saving and preserving large parts of the environment. . . .

Editor’s picks: Hottest days on record; plus get ready for El Niño

The world’s hottest day

Monday Tuesday Wednesday was the hottest day ever on Earth recorded by humans, and it’s possible probable that record could be broken again this year month week. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction reported that on Monday, July 3, the average global temperature reached 17.01°C., or 62.62°F. That was a record. On Tuesday, it climbed again, to hit 17.18°C., another record. But wait. On Wednesday, it stayed at 17.18°C. (62.9 degrees°F.), according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, a tool that uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world’s condition. The previous record of 16.92°C. was set in August 2016. Climate scientist Dr. Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, tweeted “NCEP has placed Earth’s average temperature [Monday] as the hottest single day thus far measured by humans. This is driven by the combination of El Niño on top of global warming, and we may well see a few even warmer days over the next 6 weeks.” Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment in the UK, told CNN, “It’s not a record to celebrate and it won’t be a record for long, with northern hemisphere summer still mostly ahead and El Niño developing.”

El Niño is here, get ready

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization. A new update from the WMO says there’s a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023, and it’s expected to be at least of moderate strength. “The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. He added that the El Niño declaration is a signal to governments around the world that “early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods.”

Accurate forecasts save lives

This working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research provides the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The paper, titled Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts, shows the benefits from people using advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. From the abstract: “Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of mortality events and weather forecasts for a 12-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts increase mortality whereas erroneously extreme forecasts do not reduce mortality. Making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year. The public would be willing to pay $112 billion to make forecasts 50% more accurate over the remainder of the century, of which $22 billion reflects how forecasts facilitate adaptation to climate change.” Authors: Jeffrey Shrader, Columbia University School of International & Public Affairs, IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Laura Bakkensen, University of Arizona; Derek Lemoine, University of Arizona Department of Economics.

Words to live by . . . .

“All good things are wild and free.” — Henry David Thoreau.

By David Callaway

America’s Least Healthy Cities

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Source: Sean Pavone / iStock via Getty Images

When it comes to health, we can try our best to improve what we can control, but sometimes  factors beyond our control are stacked against us. People can try to lead an active lifestyle and eat a balanced diet, but if they breathe polluted air while going for a walk or if their income is insufficient to buy healthier foods, they may not benefit as much from the choices they can make. (One key environmental factor of health, for example, is water quality, and these are American cities with the most contaminated water.)

Some factors that impact health – especially socioeconomic conditions, health care infrastructure, and environmental characteristics – are common to many U.S. cities, and variations in these factors contribute to disparities in health outcomes across different urban areas.  

To determine the 25 least healthy cities in the United States, 24/7 Tempo reviewed county-level data from the 2023 County Health Rankings & Roadmaps program of the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute. Metropolitan areas were ranked based on an index consisting of eight health measures, such as potential life lost, smoking rate, and percentage reporting fair or poor health, all using data from the CHR. In all, 384 metro areas were considered.

Nearly all of the least healthy cities are in states in the South, including five in Louisiana, five in West Virginia, and three in Alabama. Two each are in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Four cities from Midwestern states also rank among the least healthy, while no states from the Northeast or the West make the list.

Click here to see America’s least healthy cities
Click here for a detailed methodology

One component of the index is the adult smoking rate, which is higher than the national rate of 16% in all of the 25 least healthy metro areas. The least healthy city on the list, Beckley, West Virginia, has the second highest smoking rate nationwide at 25.8%. In fact, six of the 25 cities have among the 10 highest smoking rates nationwide. Similarly, all of the 25 least healthy cities have a higher adult obesity rate than the national average of 32%, including 15 cities with an adult obesity rate above 40%. (Here is a list of the most obese city in every state.)

While median household income is not an index component, all of the 25 least healthy cities have lower median household incomes than the national median of $69,717, including 13 cities with median annual household incomes below $50,000. The least healthy city, Beckley, has a median household income of $38,737 – the lowest of all 384 metros considered. 

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