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9 Biggest Threats the World Will Face in 2023

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2022 was marked by geopolitical, economic, and ecological tumult. Global inflation surged to historic highs, while worsening droughts gave rise to humanitarian crises in many parts of the world. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the largest military movement in Europe since World War II. These and other factors have set the stage for the year ahead – and the challenges to global stability and development in 2023 are no less daunting than those that defined 2022. 

A recent report from Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk analysis and consulting firm, identified the top 10 risks facing the world in 2023. The report, “Top Risks 2023,” offers detailed predictions of what the largest threats to global stability, peace, and prosperity will be in the coming year.

24/7 Wall St. picked nine of Eurasia Group’s top 10 risks of 2023 and reviewed them along with the Group’s analysis of each risk. The risks on this list are global in scope and cover issues related to technology, politics, economics, international relations, and environment. The risks on this list are ranked by their likelihood, imminence, and potential impact – from the lowest to the highest. 

An underlying feature of several of the top risks in the coming year is a move toward authoritarianism and increased isolation of several of the world’s most powerful countries. China’s President Xi Jinping has successfully consolidated power to a degree not seen since Mao Zedong. Meanwhile, Russia’s war in Ukraine has left the country diplomatically and economically isolated from much of the rest of the world. Iran’s ongoing nuclear program, coupled with widespread domestic upheaval, has had similar consequences. 

These developments have given rise to greater uncertainty in the world in 2023. Without checks and balances, oversight, or tolerance for dissent, governments in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran are more prone to missteps that could have far-reaching consequences, Eurasia Group explains. (These are the nine leaders who have the power to destroy life on Earth.)

Some of the other top risks in 2023 are coming directly from the United States. The anticipated proliferation of advanced artificial intelligence in the coming year will likely result in widespread disinformation and further erode democratic institutions. And the U.S. is already among the most politically polarized and dysfunctional advanced democracies in the world. (Here is a look at America’s most politically divided cities.)

According to the report, a global recession, an energy crisis, and continued ecological catastrophe are also among the top threats facing the world in the coming year.

Click here to see the 9 biggest threats the world will face in 2023.

Brazil protests show Lula’s Amazon goals will face violent opposition

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— Brazil’s unprecedented protests against Democracy show saving the Amazon basin will be a violent affair
— President Joe Biden’s push into electrifying all transport will trigger a new phase in investment opportunity for EVs and charging stations
— Foiled by climate change? Vladimir Putin’s plot to cause an energy crisis in Europe this winter meets global warming
— Are 22 trillion gallons of new rainwater enough to cure California of its generational drought? Apparently not.
— Great Salt Lake may be the first U.S. watery landmark to go extinct. It won’t be the last.

The unprecedented protests in Brazil by opponents of new President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are more than a dangerous copy of the Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol. They are a hint of the violent opposition Lula will encounter as he tries to stop years of illegal strip mining and logging in the Amazon basin.

While in the U.S., the beneficiaries of climate protests are usually the big, public oil and gas companies, in the Amazon it’s still the Wild West — with land grabs, money laundering and even murder a normal part of doing business in an unregulated area almost 3 million square miles large.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro may be laid up in Florida, and many of his supporters arrested during the protests. But Brazil remains a divided nation, and the criminals guilty of destroying the Amazon won’t go quietly because Lula is now in charge. The lines between extremism and organized crime are exceedingly thin.

The Amazon Basin is the front line of the world’s efforts to save itself from catastrophic global warming. Scientists claim it might have already tipped from the world’s largest carbon sink, reducing carbon in the atmosphere with its trees, to a net emitter of carbon.

The battle to protect it from getting worse, with Lula as its best hope, is going to be unprecedented in the annals of environmental activism. It’s also going to get a lot more violent.

More insights below . . . .

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Food or solar energy? There doesn’t have to be a choice

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(A native of England, veteran journalist Matthew Diebel has worked at NBC News, Time, USA Today and News Corp., among other organizations. Having spent much of his childhood next to one of the world’s fastest bodies of water, he is particularly interested in tidal energy.)

I grew up on a farm, and the thought that its picturesque fields could be covered by non-bucolic solar panels is quite alarming. But I am also a fan of renewable energy. How to square the circle?

That’s where the, er, field of “agrivoltaics” comes in. Instead of land being given over solely to solar energy — and thus possibly reducing the food supply — increasing focus is being put on combining the two.

As we reported about this time last year, a networking organization call AgriSolar Clearinghouse, is connecting farmers, landowners and solar developers and produced a case study of about the 23.4 MW Arnprior solar project near Ottawa, Canada, developed by France’s EDF Renewables (EDFR). On the 300-acre site, sheep roam and bees create honey among the panels…

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Major Nuclear Power Mishaps in 35 Countries Since 1990

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Since the 1950s, heat generated by controlled nuclear processes has been harnessed to power turbines that create electrical power. Today, dozens of countries rely on nuclear power as a source of sustainable energy. Radiological materials have also been used in medicine, for diagnosis and treatment of diseases. Other industries have been using radiological isotopes as well.

The downside is, of course, that irradiated materials like Iodine-131, cesium-137, and cobalt-60, are incredibly dangerous. Unlike in the fantasy worlds of superheros, radiation exposure does not turn people into Spider-Man, the Hulk, or the Fantastic Four but rather causes significant burns and several types of cancer. A person with acute radiation syndrome can die within weeks or months. 

Radiation that escapes into the environment, as it did at the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident in April 1986, is harmful for thousands of years into the future.

Furthermore, the toxic waste generated by spent nuclear fuel requires long-term storage and management. Though advances have been made in recycling and maximizing the use of radioactive fuel rods, the U.S. alone generates about 2,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel annually that has to go somewhere. For most people, that “somewhere” is “not in my backyard,” which makes finding places to store nuclear waste challenging. (See if the U.S. is also the country with the most nuclear weapons.)

Meanwhile, the number of countries with nuclear power plants is increasing. Belarus and the United Arab Emirates are the most recent members of this global nuclear power club. These countries have agreed to track incidents at their nuclear plants and in other industries that use radiological materials, from medical imaging to materials testing (i.e. industrial radiography).

To find how many radiological incidents and mishaps happened in countries with nuclear power reactors, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed Amsterdam-based LAKA (LAndelijk Kernenergie Archief – National Nuclear Energy Archive) archives, which list all nuclear and radiology-related mishaps since 1990 as reported each year by the International Atomic Energy Agency. From the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System database, last updated on Dec. 11, 2022, we added the number of nuclear reactors in each country.

These countries have reported at least 921 nuclear and radiological mishaps over the past 32 years, led by the United States, France, and India. Most of these incidents rank low on the seven-level rating system of the International Nuclear Event Scale, or INES, which ranks such mishaps based on numerous factors, including whether the incident overexposed workers or member of the public; whether or not the radiological spill was contained within a facility; and whether the incident signified a breach of adequate safety protocol.

INES level 0 has no safety significance, 1 is considered an anomaly, while levels 2 and 3 are considered incidents. Levels 4 and above are categorized as accidents. Chernobyl and Fukushima were both level 7 major accidents. Radioactive leaks are measured by the number of curies, a unit of radioactivity named after the Polish-French nuclear pioneer Marie Curie. (These two events are the world’s worst nuclear accidents.)

Click here to see major nuclear power mishaps in 35 countries since 1990.

Climate investor checklist — the only thing certain about 2023

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Happy New Year and welcome to all our new subscribers from over the holidays. This week last year, the markets were trading at record levels and expectations were strong that interest rates would stay low and that a war in Ukraine could be avoided. Also, that President Joe Biden and the Dems would get swamped in the U.S. midterms.

Just something to remember as we gaze this week over the detritus of our 2022 investment portfolios and listen to just about every talking head predict global recession and shattered property, equity, bond, and crypto markets for 2023. When everybody expects something from financial markets, it rarely happens.

Amid the gloom, which includes record winter warmth in Europe (all the headlines are about ski season in the Alps being devastated) and historic storms across the U.S., financial and political action on climate is still pushing ahead.

On his first day in office this week, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva issued orders to restrict gold mining in the Amazon, fulfilling at least one hope that he could help save what is likely the biggest risk to global warming for any of us. Biden is touring the U.S., talking up his infrastructure spending commitments, and bringing some Republican lawmakers with him.

And the green bond market, despite soaring interest rates, achieved more than $1.2 trillion in new issuance last year, about 80% of its 2021 record levels, as green premiums came down, a sign the market is maturing from something of a fad into a legitimate financial engine, according to BNEF and the FT.

It’s easy to look ahead and expect the worst, especially after the most tumultuous year since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. The only thing certain is that whatever happens, it won’t be what we planned for.

Renewables vs. fossil fuels? Lessons from 2022’s fund performance scoreboard

. . . . Who did better last year? Investors in renewables or fossil fuels? Easy one, right? How about the past three years? You’d be surprised, writes Mark Hulbert. Like with fighting global warming itself, investing in climate finance involves context and long-term planning. If they are to have any hope of helping to mitigate climate change, investors must be committed for the long haul — even when fossil fuel companies are running circles around them. . . .

Read the fill column

This week’s subscriber only insights

. . . . If you really want a green future to aspire to, look no further than a couple of European nations, neighbors across the North Sea. In Norway, 80% of new cars sold are now EVs while wind power has helped the UK get ahead of the Ukraine war-caused energy crisis. Read more here. . . .

. . . . Until recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk held firm on prices for his storied EVs, and even shunned traditional advertising. But now we’re seeing big discounts, soft demand and serious competition. Could we possibly see Musk as a TV pitchman next? Read more. . . .

Editor’s picks: Europe’s snow shortage, more EV charging power for Arizona

Alpine slopes face snow shortage

Unseasonably warm weather is making many parts of the Alps spring green, as Europe’s central mountains are suffering from a snow shortage. The Associated Press reports the lack of snow is affecting some of Europe’s most popular ski resorts, and a recent weather map showed Poland racking up daily highs in the double digits Celsius — or more than 50°F. Last year was the hottest on record in both Switzerland and France. The World Meteorological Organization says the past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest on record. “By the end of the century (it’s) just going to be over … skiing in the Alps as we know it,” Wim Thiery, a professor of climate science at the University of Brussels, told the AP. “In the future, these problems will get worse, because the snow will continue to melt as long as the climate warms.”

Arizona plans network of EV chargers along interstates

Arizona is taking more than $76 million in federal funding and using it to upgrade and install EV charging stations along five interstate highways. Cronkite News reports the state’s Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Plan aims to develop a network of EV fast chargers and encourage EV adoption by more users. According to the report, Upgrades to eight existing charging stations will start in 2023, and in 2024, the Arizona Dept. of Transportation will begin the process of installing 13 more. They’ll be placed about every 50 miles and within one mile of an interstate, ADOT spokesperson Doug Nick said. Each station will have at least four EV fast chargers capable of charging most vehicles in about 30 minutes. The stations will be independently owned and operated. Station owners will pay 20% of construction costs and federal funding will cover the other 80%.

Car-free cities

Cars are becoming accepted as an unsustainable mode of transportation by being a primary contributor towards increasing levels of air and noise pollution, urban congestion, fatal accidents, and the physical invasion of public space, write the authors of “Car-Free Cities: Regenerative Urban Planning and Prioritizing Pedestrians.” But public transportation and different forms of micromobility have been proven to be an effective tool in solving many of the aforementioned market failures created by cars and serve as a critical step in the transition towards a more sustainable transportation industry. From the abstract: “As governments aim to transition towards a sustainable economy, governments need to implement innovative policies that encourage safe and sustainable modes of urban transportation and return public space to people. Though politically controversial, declaring a city as “car-free” is an effective policy towards achieving the transition towards a sustainable urban environment.” Author: Yonah Feld, Reichman University.

Words to live by . . . .

“I have long understood that climate change is not only an environmental issue – it is a humanitarian, economic, health, and justice issue as well.” — Frances G. Beinecke, environmental activist and politician.

Best Movies About the End of the World

Source: Courtesy of Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

The idea of the end of the world is something humanity has grappled with throughout history. Predictions of total annihilation by divine entities have come from a range of different cultures and religions. In more recent times, they have also come from Hollywood – as films about nuclear annihilation, zombie attacks, and dystopian futures have become standard cinematic offerings.

To determine the best movies about the end of the world, 24/7 Tempo developed an index of feature films using average ratings on IMDb, an online movie database owned by Amazon, and a combination of audience scores and Tomatometer scores on Rotten Tomatoes, an online movie and TV review aggregator, as of Dec. 1, 2022, weighting all ratings equally. We considered only movies that are set during the apocalypse or in a post-apocalyptic world, or otherwise deal with apocalyptic themes. Directorial credits are from IMDb.

Many of these movies are based on threats that seem at least plausible like nuclear war, computers becoming sentient, and the existence of hostile extraterrestrial life. Others focus on supernatural threats like divine destruction or attacks by fantastic creatures.

Many of these stories reflect extreme collective anxiety around the threat of nuclear annihilation, especially during the Cold War. Perhaps we have come much closer to the end than many people realize: There have been a number of nuclear mistakes that nearly caused the apocalypse.

The downfall of humanity caused by deadly pathogens is another common theme. In some of these films, pandemics sweep through, leaving millions dead. In others, the viruses transform humans into zombie-like shells of their former selves. (These are the best zombie movies of all time.)

Click here to see the best movies about the end of the world

There are also several science fiction thrillers about advanced technology spiraling out of our control. “The Terminator,” “The Matrix,” and “Colossus: The Forbin Project” are about scientific and technological breakthroughs that lead to unforeseen consequences putting humanity in peril.

All these films deal with the apocalypse in very different ways – some are extremely heavy and dark films, others are action thrillers, and a few are even comedies. We all deal with tragedy in different ways and these films help to capture our outlook on threats to our civilization and species as a whole.

Renewables or fossil fuels? Lessons from the 2022 fund performance scoreboards

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(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — 2022 was the second year in a row in which the average fossil fuel fund significantly outperformed the average green energy fund.

It wasn’t even close: The average fund in Morningstar’s renewable energy and sustainable investing categories lost 21.9% last year, versus a gain of 50.7% for the fossil fuel funds in Morningstar’s energy category. This spread of over 70 percentage points was even wider than the greater-than-40-percentage-point advantage in 2021 that fossil fuel funds had over green energy funds.

To be sure, green energy funds had their day in the sun in 2020, when the situation was just the reverse of what it was in 2021 and 2022. That was when the average green energy fund beat the average fossil fuel fund by more than 140 percentage points.

Believe it or not, these three years of gains and losses net out to a virtual tie: The average green energy fund has produced a 14.29% annualized three-year return through the end of 2022, versus 14.28% for the average fossil fuel fund. (Note that I calculated these averages based on those funds and ETFs that existed for the entire three-year period.)

I draw several investment lessons from these results:…

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Most Popular New Year’s Resolutions for 2023

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The end of each year is a popular time for reflection and making plans for the year ahead. These plans often include resolutions to shed bad habits, achieve goals, get healthier.

Different surveys show different numbers, but the undisputed consensus is that most resolutions will have failed by the beginning of February. And many don’t last that long. There’s even an unofficial holiday called Quitter’s Day, observed on the second Friday of January – said to be the day by which most resolution-makers will have given up.

That doesn’t stop people from making resolutions anew every year. To compile a list of the most popular New Year’s resolutions as 2022 comes to a close, 24/7 Tempo reviewed a report by the consumer data site Statista. The survey was conducted in the United States in October and November 2022. Over 1,000 U.S. consumers were asked what their New Year’s resolutions are. (To compare the answers with last year’s most common resolutions, see what Americans wanted to achieve in 2022.)

Click here to see the most popular New Year’s resolutions for 2023

For many, a new year symbolizes a fresh start – a chance to take up new hobbies and eliminate bad habits. Living a healthier life is what Americans are focusing on for 2023. How they will do it varies, from planning to exercise more to quitting smoking and even to becoming a vegetarian.

Perhaps unsurprisingly in a year marked by inflation, people are also vowing to spend less money by cutting down on some living expenses such as food, clothing, and energy. (This is the income a family needs to cover normal living expenses in every state.)

25 Worst Holiday Storms of All Time

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Winter Storm Elliott has wreaked havoc on travelers this Christmas, cancelling more than 5,000 flights across the country. The Great Lakes region and the Northeast have been hit with flooding, record-cold temperatures, feet of snow and blizzard conditions. The storm represents a major inconvenience for Americans at what is the busiest travel time of the year. It is, of course, not the first major storm to throw a wrench in travel plans for millions of Americans.  

Ten years ago this December, two major storms struck the United States, one after another. The first hit the mid-Atlantic and New England beginning on Dec. 18, dumping nearly 2 feet of snow on Philadelphia. Then another storm blanketed the Northern Rockies and Plains states over Christmas, finally letting up just before New Year’s Eve. The storms lead to road conditions that killed at least a dozen people and left motorists stranded. 

24/7 Wall St. reviewed data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and local news and weather sources to identify the worst storms to hit during the holidays. We considered all storms that occurred from Thanksgiving through New Year’s Day. 

In many cases, these storms dropped over 2 feet of snow. While not all of the storms on this list involved record snowfall, they were still highly disruptive and destructive, in part because they produced strong winds, dangerous and violent seas, or because they affected wide areas, in some cases more than a dozen states. Here are some of the worst blizzards of all time

Some of the storms made the list because they affected particularly vulnerable places. In some cases, this means storms directly hit and shut down major metropolises. In other cases, the storms predominantly impacted southern states that are less prepared for major snowfall events, and so the storms were more disruptive and costly. One such storm was the Christmas Coastal Snowstorm of 1989, where more than a foot of snow fell on states that are more used to major hurricanes than snow. These are the most powerful hurricanes of all time.

Click here to see the 25 worst holiday storms of all time

10 of the Deadliest Natural Disasters in the World Since 1980

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An earthquake in China’s west-central Sichuan province struck this Sept. 5, killing more than two dozen people, injuring hundreds more, and damaging thousands of homes. The moderately strong earthquake was the second to strike the province since 2017, when a quake centered around the town of Zhangzha induced similar damages.

Neither of these quakes compare to one that struck beneath Sichuan’s provincial capital of Chengdu on May 12, 2008. That much larger quake delivered a direct strike under a more densely populated area, and sent waves that were felt by residents of Shanghai, more than 1,000 miles away. About 88,000 people in and near the epicenter were killed in one of the most destructive earthquakes ever recorded. (These are the countries in which the most people have died in natural disasters.)

Earthquakes are the most common natural disasters to wreak such extensive mayhem. Cyclones (or hurricanes, as they’re called in the Western Hemisphere) and months-long heat waves also feature prominently among deadly natural disasters.

To compile a list of 10 of the deadliest natural disasters since 1980, 24/7 Tempo reviewed information compiled by the consumer data site Statista, covering natural disasters occurring through January 2022 – though no disasters deadly enough to qualify for inclusion in our list date from later than 2010.  

Click here to see 10 of the deadliest natural disasters in the world since 1980

Of the ten deadliest natural disasters since 1980, six of them were earthquakes, including the Sichuan quake of 2008, and two that rattled Iran (in 1990 and 2003). Two were cyclones that struck Bangladesh and Myanmar in 1991 and 2008, respectively, and two were intense heat waves that struck Europe in 2003 and 2010. (These are the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded.)

Taken together, these 10 disasters killed more than a million people and laid waste to homes, buildings, farmlands, and infrastructure.

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