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A reassessment of Larry Fink’s annual letters to CEOs and shareholders

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(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — It’s all too easy to criticize Larry Fink, chairman and CEO and founder of BlackRock $BLK , for the apparent inconsistencies in his annual letters to CEOs and shareholders.

And that’s a shame, because we can draw several important lessons from the evolution of his writings over the past several years.

The criticisms of Fink hardly need to be repeated. They focus on his apparent about-face from, several years ago, urging the aggressive divestment of fossil fuel companies, to his more recent acknowledgement that those companies have a valuable role to play in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

A close reading of his annual shareholder letters reveals a more subtle shift in tone and emphasis rather than a complete about-face. That’s important to acknowledge not because Fink’s reputation needs to be defended but because the path he took to get where he is today is one that all climate-focused investors would do well to study…

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The great ESG fund cull of 2023 is upon us

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In today’s edition:

— Behind the incredibly shrinking ESG fund market, some stars emerge
— What anti-ESG backlash? Consumers are shifting; investors are noticing
— Renewable energy topped coal usage in the U.S. for the first time in 2022. What’s next?
— How carbon-emitting concrete is suddenly becoming a climate solution
— Is nuclear power equal to renewable energy?

The makings of a thorough spring cleaning of ill-qualified European environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds is at hand, and it could be a bonanza for the few funds managers who crafted the most climate-focused portfolios.

Months after the European Union introduced a new concept that all funds labeled ESG must meet certain criteria under a rule called Article 9, the index giant MSCI is about to cull more than 90% of funds currently using ESG from its list of ESG funds, according to the Financial Times, citing an internal client memo from BlackRock.

The intention is to take out the vast majority of funds who may be greenwashing their marketing with environmental claims that don’t hold up. The result will be a rush of investor money into the few funds that are left, as managers with fiduciary requirements to follow ESG strategies upgrade to the new, smaller niche.

While the MSCI purge is expected to cover funds around the world, European funds will suffer the brunt of it, as they have been the most aggressive in using ESG in their marketing efforts in the past few years. As we wrote last year, fund managers adapting to the Article 9 rule have already seen huge inflows in recent months.

Among the funds ranked the highest for ESG under Article 9 by Physis Investments, three of the top five are index funds run by French asset manager Amundi. And the other two are run by Lyxor, which was bought by Amundi last year. Among the most popular among institutional investors have been Baillie Gifford Positive Change (BPEKX), Morgan Stanley Global Sustainable Equity, and Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity (JEUIX), and KBI’s Water Strategy portfolio, also part of the Amundi group, according to Investment Metric’s most recent institutional fund flow analysis.

Combined with the political pressure ESG investing is getting in the U.S., the MSCI purge may ring the final death knell for the short-lived ESG fad. Few investors will be sad to see those letters, which nobody can agree a meaning on, go the way of other fads. But the clearing up of strategic investing intentions will give environmentally-conscious investors better choices. And further integrate climate investing with fiduciary duty as a whole.

Callaway Climate Insights

The 9 World Leaders Who Have the Power to Destroy Life on Earth

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that the Russian military would “respond accordingly” if the United Kingdom were to provide Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition. This is not the first time Putin has threatened to use “weapons with a nuclear component” and there are some who fear he might even consider using one or more of Russia’s world-leading 5,977 nuclear bombs on Ukraine or one of its NATO member neighbors. (These are the nine countries with nuclear weapons, ranked.)

Vladimir Putin is one of nine global leaders with a nuclear arsenal, capable of destroying life on earth as we know it. Using data from the 2022 Status of World Nuclear Forces, a report by the nonprofit global policy think tank Federation of American Scientists, 24/7 Wall St. identified the nine people who lead the world’s nuclear-armed states. 

Nuclear weapons are considered – both by countries pursuing them and those possessing them – as a deterrent to would-be aggressors. The Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States would not likely have remained cold had it not been for mutual assured destruction – a defense principle warning that a nuclear strike by one power would be met with a devastating counterattack by the other and result in the annihilation of both belligerents. (This is what a nuclear attack would do to the world’s major cities.) 

A nuclear explosion can drive ground temperatures up to over 7,000 degrees Fahrenheit and create destructive shockwaves, potentially killing millions in densely-populated cities. But the devastation can also extend far beyond the immediate blast radius. Multiple nuclear explosions, should any one of the countries on this list engage in a nuclear war, could send millions of tons of black smoke into the stratosphere, reducing sunlight and lowering global temperatures, resulting in lower crop yields and mass famine, to name but a few of the consequences. (This is what a nuclear winter would do to the Earth.) 

The nuclear arsenals of today are far more advanced – and destructive – than those of the previous century. Nuclear weapons can now be deployed from the sea, land, and air, and they range greatly in power. Russia, for example, is known to have tactical nuclear weapons, which are generally smaller and designed to be used on the battlefield. Russia has also successfully tested a hydrogen bomb with a 50 megaton payload – a force over 1,500 larger than the bombs used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and equal to more than 10 times all the munitions used throughout World War II.

Click here to see the nine leaders who have the power to destroy life on Earth.

Scottish distilleries have a bonnie plan to curb emissions

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(A native of England, veteran journalist Matthew Diebel has worked at NBC News, Time, USA Today and News Corp., among other organizations.)

It must be admitted at the end of a hard day toiling at Callaway Climate Insights that I often pour myself a wee dram of scotch whisky. My brand of choice is Teacher’s, a reasonably priced blend that has a high proportion of a somewhat smoky single malt.

But it’s also a guilty pleasure because scotch is manufactured by carbon-intensive means, something I learned as an 18-year-old when I took my grandfather on a driving tour of Scotland. In particular, he wanted to visit the Blair Athol distillery that supplies the single malt whisky used in his favorite blend, Bell’s (which is unfortunately not sold in the U.S.).

As we approached the picturesque town Pitlochry, where it is made, I could see smoke and steam rising from the distillation rising from the plant. The carbon-intensive process was confirmed when we went inside — vast vats and copper kettles threw out considerable heat and there was a smell of smoke in the air. Our reward was a visit to the much cooler tasting room where we sampled the wares — hey, 18 is the legal-drinking age in the U.K. — and bought a couple of bottles…

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Ford electric vehicle loss forecast highlights big week to come for EV investors

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.‘Bomb cyclones’? ‘Atmospheric Rivers’? The deadly and destructive storm that hit California this week — one of 12 such events to slam into the West Coast since late December — is raising fears about the ARkStorm scenario, which has nothing to do with Noah’s Ark (we hope) and everything to do with Atmospheric Rivers. Read about how climate shifts and this dangerous phenomenon could threaten entire regions of California and beyond in our new editorial feature, Explain that, below.

NEW YORK CITY — Ford Motors’ $F forecast this week that it will lose up to $3 billion on its nascent electric vehicle operation should come as no surprise to automotive investors. The massive investment required to retool a company such as Ford to produce EVs at scale was always going to lead to early losses.

But for investors trying to make sense of how the EV industry, with its battery components and charging infrastructure, will develop, it’s a helpful preamble to the main story next week when the Treasury finally publishes its guidance on what electric vehicles will qualify for tax subsidies under the new Inflation Reduction Act.

Ford said investment in its EV production plants will cause it to lose $3 billion in 2023, up from $2.1 billion last year and about $900 million in 2021. It said it expects to report a profit on the division by 2026, which is also what rival General Motors $GM is targeting for profitability for its EV investment. By comparison, Tesla $TSLA took more than a decade to report a profit, though it had to start from scratch without the infrastructure of its larger competitors.

Those forecasts are contingent on strong demand for all of the EV makers’ products in the next few years, a lot of which could be driven by clarity on subsidies and pricing that the Treasury will announce. All expectations are that the Biden Administration will loosen its eligibility requirements for which vehicles qualify for the $7,500 tax subsidy, both in terms of price and with regard to the percentage of components such as batteries that are made in America.

Still, the announcement will be a milestone in the early race among automakers to develop cheaper and more reliable EVs as demand pushes sales into the double digits in terms of percent of all auto sales (from just under 6% currently). Investors will be looking quickly to see which company might be best positioned to benefit from this wave of new buyers. Start your EV engines.

Marsha Vande Berg’s Sustainability Stars: Sarah Gelfand and the quest for impact

. . . . The rise of impact investing over the past 15 years has coincided with a parallel rise in greenwashing claims that companies are simply announcing green intentions for the publicity. Sarah Gelfand of BlueMark is a pioneer in the practice of bringing both accountability and results to impact investing. She sits down with our Marsha Vande Berg for an exclusive interview about the challenges of impact and corporate social responsibility in Marsha Vande Berg’s Sustainability Stars. . . .

Read the full interview

Thursday’s subscriber-only insights

. . . . Want to catch what’s powering the EV investment wave? McKinsey estimates that more than 100 million batteries will reach the end of their life in the next 10 years, putting recycling at the forefront as a business opportunity “to scale a supply chain that is more stable, more resilient, more efficient, and more sustainable.” Read more here. . . .

. . . . Here’s how two apparent pieces of fossil fuel bad news could actually be good: First, Europe appears to be heading for an excess of LNG import capacity; second, TotalEnergies, in the same vein, says it is going big on natural gas. As a result, gas production will be so big that prices go down, thus pressuring coal users to get rid of their even-dirtier power plants, Plus, seeing profits dip because of low prices, oil companies will once again get serious about renewable energy (or risk going out of business). Read more here. . . .

. . . . Lost in the chaotic takeover of troubled Credit Suisse by UBS over the weekend and the unprecedented wiping out of certain bond holders by the Swiss government, is what the environmental impact on merging the two bank operations might look like. This analysis from Bloomberg (wish we had thought of it) takes a deep look at each bank’s carbon emissions footprint and sustainable product sales record. While probably not UBS’s top priority at this point in the takeover, it’s going to be another in a long line of unavoidable headaches the bank will have to endure to integrate its rival in an effective way. . . .

. . . . It’s green washing, not greenwashing, when you use concentrated detergent. Laundry is quite a carbon-intensive process. There’s the washing machine and the dryer, both of which use large amounts of electricity. But did you think about the detergent, in particular the size of the bottles? Turns out it’s a heavy issue. Read more here. . . .

Editor’s picks: EPA plans to OK tougher California truck rules

EPA set to support tougher California truck-emission rules

The EPA plans to grant California waivers to enforce environmental rules that are tougher than federal standards for tailpipe emissions and would see the phase-out of diesel trucks. According to a report in the Washington Post citing unnamed sources briefed on the plans, the Biden administration will approve new California rules, already approved by state regulators as part of efforts to speed the transition to electric-powered trucks. According to the report, the new regulations could have a big impact on pollution and health, particularly in Black and Latino communities. Heavy-duty trucks account for nearly a third of the state’s smog-forming nitrogen oxide and more than a quarter of its fine particle pollution from diesel fuel. Both of these harmful pollutants are linked to asthma, other respiratory illnesses and premature death, the Post report notes.

What experienced protesters have to say about climate change

Older adults took to the streets this week in what was described as the first-ever mass climate protests in the U.S. led by senior citizens, demanding that major U.S. banks including Chase $JPM , Bank of America $BAC , Citigroup $C and Wells Fargo $WFC stop funding new fossil fuel infrastructure. A report in The Independent said the events in 90 locations in New York, Washington, D.C., Alaska and along the West Coast were organized by Third Act, a climate action group for over-60s founded by longtime environmental campaigner Bill McKibben, and supported by organizations including the Sierra Club, Greenpeace, GreenFaith and The Hip Hop Caucus. “The banks just cannot acknowledge that we’re in 2023, and keep partying like it’s 1899,” McKibben told The Independent on Friday. “Isn’t it time for the banks to take note of the new reality of the climate crisis?”

Explain that: What’s an ARkStorm?

In our new feature Explain that we bring you clear, unbiased and authoritative explanations of terms relevant to climate change and climate finance. Today, let’s bail out the ARkStorm.

. . . . ARkStorm is a modeled scenario of U.S. West Coast winter storm events induced by the formation of Atmospheric Rivers (AR) and capable of causing massive and devastating flooding. While no one has said that as of today, California’s recent series of AR storms is developing into an ARkStorm, interest in the subject is, ahem, rising. Yale Climate Connections says a 2022 study shows climate change has already doubled the risk of a California megaflood. And an additional 1°C. of global warming would double the odds again.

According to the USGS, the ARkStorm storm is patterned after the 1861-62 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming a series of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that approach the ferocity of hurricanes and then slam into the U.S. West Coast over several weeks. Atmospheric Rivers are relatively narrow regions in the atmosphere that are responsible for most of the horizontal transport of water vapor outside of the tropics.

Such a storm event “could realistically flood thousands of square miles of urban and agricultural land, result in thousands of landslides, disrupt lifelines throughout the state for days or weeks, and cost on the order of $725 billion. This figure is more than three times that estimated for the ShakeOut scenario earthquake, which has roughly the same annual occurrence probability as an ARkStorm-like event. The $725 billion figure comprises approximately $400 billion in property damage and $325 billion in business-interruption losses. An event like the ARkStorm could require the evacuation of 1,500,000 people. Because the flood depths in some areas could realistically be on the order of 10-20 feet, without effective evacuation there could be substantial loss of life. An ARkStorm would be a statewide disaster. Extensive flooding is deemed realistic in the California Central Valley, San Francisco Bayshore, San Diego, Los Angeles and Orange Counties, several coastal communities, and various riverine communities around the state. Both because of its large geographic size and the state’s economic interdependencies, an ARkStorm would affect all California counties and all economic sectors.” An ARkStorm could produce an economic catastrophe, threatening California with a long-term reduction in economic activity, and raise insurance rates statewide — perhaps nationwide or more — afterwards. An ARkStorm is plausible, perhaps inevitable — and, to some extent predictable, says the USGS. Also, to explain the name… AR = atmospheric rivers; k refers to 1,000 for the precipitation levels of a thousand-year storm; plus the word “storm” = ARkStorm.

Words to live by . . . .

“Of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.” — John Muir.

Best Movies Starring Only One Actor

Source: Courtesy of Universal Pictures

Playing a leading character in a movie is demanding enough. But portraying a character who’s on screen for most, if not all, of the movie – sometimes as the only person seen – is the ultimate exercise in acting.

To determine the best movies with one main character, 24/7 Tempo developed an index using average ratings on IMDb, an online movie database owned by Amazon, and a combination of audience scores and Tomatometer scores on Rotten Tomatoes, an online movie and TV review aggregator, as of March 2023, weighting all ratings equally. Only movies that focus on one solitary character for the bulk of their running time were considered. Documentaries and concert films were excluded.

Eight actors on our list are Oscar winners (though not all won their statues for acting). In every case listed here, though, critics cited the actor’s performance as distinguishing the movie – and seven of these films have a Rotten Tomatoes Freshness score of 90% or above.

The lion’s share of the films on our list deal with survival. Movies such as “The Last Man on Earth” (with Vincent Price), “The Omega Man” (with Charlton Heston), and “I Am Legend” (with Will Smith) – all based on the same novel – take place in a dystopian future where plague has all but depopulated the planet and it’s up to one person to try and save humanity’s future. (Here are the best movies about the end of the world.)

Films such “Cast Away” with Tom Hanks as a marooned FedEx executive, Blake Lively’s star turn as a wounded surfer in “The Shallows,” and Charles Martin Smith’s researcher scientist looking into the behavior of wolves in “Never Cry Wolf” address humankind’s instinct for survival against nature in its hardest conditions.

Click here to see the best movies with one main character

Some of the movies on our list are set beyond Earth, such as “The Martian,” starring Matt Damon, and “Moon,” headlined by Sam Rockwell.

Not all main characters are in physical extremis. Christopher Plummer portrays legendary actor John Barrymore in a one-man show titled “Barrymore,” while Philip Baker Hall reimagines former President Richard Nixon seeking to absolve his responsibility for the Watergate scandal. (These are the 35 best fictional presidents in movies and TV.)

Marcia Vande Berg’s Sustainability Stars: Sarah Gelfand and the quest for impact

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(Marsha Vande Berg is director of MJGlobal Insights, a resource for corporate and fund decision-makers when shaping their dynamic sustainability stakeholder narratives. The former CEO of the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute, Marsha has worked with pension executives worldwide. A Stanford University Distinguished Careers Fellow and author of MJGI Briefs, you can reach her at linkedin.com/in/mjvb and follow her @MarshaJVB.)

By Marsha Vande Berg

“As our industry navigates skepticism about the ability of investors to contribute to a more just society and planet, it is imperative that sustainable and impact investors can credibly demonstrate the social and environmental results of their investment activities.” — Sarah Gelfand, co-author, Raising the Bar/2.

 

SAN FRANCISCO (Callaway Climate Insights) — Putting proof to the pudding is
Sarah Gelfand’s professional imprimatur. For this pioneer in the impact investment movement, the pudding is the investor’s sustainability claim; the proof is credible communication of the claim’s intended social impact; and the imprimatur verifies its integrity and that it intends what the investor says.

For Gelfand, there’s a lot more than good will and good intentions involved. To be credible, impact investing and fiduciary reporting require professional discipline.

Gelfand’s early contributions to the notion of investing for profit plus corporate social responsibility date to the beginnings of the contemporary impact investing movement in 2007. Even though the notion of doing well by doing good is historical, impact investment got its name and took shape in the mid-2000s at the Rockefeller Foundation when public awareness of climate change was increasing.

It was 2007 when an unprecedented global accord was reached on targets for protecting the earth’s ozone layer (Montreal Protocol). Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” won an Oscar for best documentary, and the former vice president shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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The Worst New Cars for Humans and the Environment

Source: www.mbusa.com

As the threats from climate change loom larger, many carmakers are offering more fuel-efficient vehicles, including hybrids and electrics. However, several of these companies are still making vehicles that rapidly burn through massive quantities of gasoline.

Average emissions from new vehicles have dropped significantly over the past four decades, but the most egregious gas guzzlers are lagging behind when it comes to fuel efficiency. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the average passenger vehicle emits around 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. The least fuel-efficient vehicles average more than triple that.

To find the least fuel-efficient cars for 2023, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed greenercars.org ratings of 2023 model year cars based on the report GreenerCars 2023: Efficiency and Weight — Not Just Electric vs. Gas — Shape Environmental Impact. Greenercars.org is part of the nonprofit research organization American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). Cars are ranked based on the Green Score, which runs on a scale from 0 to 100, with 100 being least polluting and 0 most polluting. The environmental damage index reflects the cost to human health from all emissions in cents per mile.

The least fuel-efficient vehicles (that are not super luxury like Bugatti or Ferrari) are muscle cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks. Larger, heavier vehicles naturally take more energy to operate and generally consume more gasoline. Vehicles with high performance combustion engines also need a massive amount of power, which equates to burning a lot of fuel.

The least fuel-efficient vehicles are not cheap to purchase or run. Almost all are recommended to use premium gasoline, and most have MRSPs of $70,000 or more. Many of these vehicles have similar, more fuel-efficient models, including hybrid and electric models. (Here is every major automaker’s plan to go electric)

The vehicles with the absolute worst fuel efficiency are the SUVs and pickup trucks that have supercharged engines. These heavy vehicles use a tremendous amount of gas to produce rapid acceleration, high speeds, and considerable torque. (These are the most fuel efficient full-size SUVs)

Click here to see the worst new cars for humans and the environment. 

Click here to see our detailed methodology.

Bank crisis weighs on U.S. climate disclosure decision, but top funds show the way

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— Forget the climate disclosure debate. Here are five top funds focused on Scope 3 emissions
— How Elon Musk missed the memo on falling electric vehicle prices
— Texas education board pushing fossil fuel-friendly science textbooks
— Solar panel imports rebound in late 2022, reviving Asia trade concerns
— Why none of the scenarios from the IPCC’s latest climate report are good

The furor over the global banking crisis sparked by Silicon Valley Bank won’t help ease the way for the Securities and Exchange Commission’s pending decision on corporate climate disclosure.

In particular, the debate over Scope 3 reporting — indirect emissions that make up the bulk of a company’s pollution — will become worse in the face of false accusations that climate investing caused the crisis. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has promised a decision this spring, which started yesterday. It will be interesting if the SEC follows through given the banking crisis is still fresh.

But whatever the politics, the fact is some companies, and the funds that hold them, already adhere to reporting emissions from their vendors and suppliers, many of them tech companies. We asked Callaway Climate Insights friend Stefania di Bartolomeo and her team at Physis Investments in Boston to pull the top five funds focused on carbon emissions based on performance and emissions/enterprise value.

They found an eclectic list of tech funds and European focused funds. State Street’s Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF $XLK , with $40 billion in assets, was the largest. It’s up 70% over the past three years and largely made up of companies such as Apple $AAPL , Microsoft $MSFT , and Nvidia $NVDA , all of which use Scope 3 reporting.

BlackRock’s $BLK iShares Global 100 ETF (100), with $3 billion in assets, had similar holdings and is up more than 48% over the last three years. The other three, according to Physis, are the R Conviction France D fund (ROTESFR) in Paris, up 21%; the Win Fund Equity-Index Switzerland fund (WINFEIC), up 9.4%; and the CSIF Equity Switzerland Large Cap Blue fund (CSIFSMI), up 10.4%.

Unlike in politics, financial returns are tough to lie about. Whatever the controversy over the SEC’s decision, it’s clear that some companies and asset managers already see Scope 3 reporting as a credible tool to measure climate risk to avoid a performance crisis down the line. This reporting is getting more detailed, not less.

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The Most Infamous Crime Committed in Every State

Source: Stephen J. Dubner / Contributor / Getty Images

Every state offers exciting cities, beautiful parks, and historic sites. But states can also be famous for other, less favorable, attributes – like shocking crimes. Sadly, each state is home to heinous felonies – murders, rapes, kidnappings, financial fraud that destroys lives, and more.

To find the most notorious crime in every state, 24/7 Tempo culled information from the FBI website and media sources such as Readers Digest, CNN, and the BBC. Because “most notorious” is a subjective judgment, we used editorial discretion to select crimes with particularly tragic or devastating impacts, most but not all of them involving loss of life. Every state, however, has been the site of many other horrible crimes as well.

Most of the crimes on this list do involve multiple murders, many by serial killers like Ted Bundy in Washington or Jeffrey Dahmer in Wisconsin, as well as two by domestic terrorists – Timothy McVeigh, executed for the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City that killed 168, including 19 children, and Unabomber Theodore Kaczynski, serving eight life sentences without possibility of parole for killing three people and wounding almost two dozen with explosive devices. (These are 25 of the most brutal criminals who ever lived.)

While most of the people listed here have been punished for their crimes, some have skated free, like Indiana’s Belle Gunness, aka “Hell’s Belle.” She left a trail of more than 40 victims beginning in the late 1880s, but escaped justice and was never found. Likewise, the killer of the so-called Black Dahlia in Los Angeles in 1947 was never identified. (Here are 22 famous unsolved crimes in America.) 

But a crime doesn’t have to be a murder to be considered notorious. The collapse of Enron in Texas and the Ponzi scheme concocted by Bernie Madoff in New York ripped off millions of dollars from innocent investors and employees, a reminder of just how devastating financial misdeeds can be.  

Click here to see the most infamous crime committed in every state

Although every untimely death is tragic, crimes can sometimes spur movements toward equal justice. The bombing of a church in Alabama that killed four young girls and the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. in Memphis highlighted the need for Civil Rights legislation. The killing of Matthew Shepard, a gay man in Wyoming, drew attention to the fight for LGBTQ rights. 

Some crimes live on in movies and literature. The killing of a Kansas farm family inspired Truman Capote’s bestselling book “In Cold Blood” and the time of the same name. The lives and deaths of outlaws Clyde Barrow and Bonnie Parker in Louisiana were the basis for an unforgettable movie as well, often considered one of the best of all time. (These are the best movies based on real events or people.)

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