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UK’s sudden lurch toward oil a lesson in electoral politics for GOP

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Source: nielubieklonu / Getty Images

In today’s edition:

— The UK government thinks it can survive next year’s election by going big on oil. U.S. Republican strategists are watching
— EU showing early signs of climate climbdown with disclosure backtrack
— COP28 is shaping up to be an historic display of diplomatic ineptitude
— Where is America’s Greta Thunberg?
— Asia powers new record in global coal consumption this year

LONDON (Callaway Climate Insights) —  Any doubts that climate change and energy costs will play a major role in next year’s UK election were wiped away this week as the ruling Conservative Party eased pollution restrictions to separate itself from the opposition Labour Party and woo voters frustrated by energy costs.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government said it will issue more than 100 new oil and gas drilling licenses in the North Sea to drive more production in what was billed as an energy security issue in the face of the Russian war on Ukraine.

This comes after the government has dramatically eased the amount of pollution companies can make and still buy offsets in the UK carbon market. The result is that UK carbon credits now trade at a discount of some 40% to European credits, which creates havoc with the EU’s own transition to renewable energy.

The maneuvering will almost certainly be closely followed by political strategists in the U.S. for clues on how to turn the Republican backlash against environmental investing strategies into a campaign issue on energy costs and security.

Sunak, leading a masterclass on greenwashing in announcing the measures this week, said his government is still fully committed to net zero by 2050, as long as it did not impose “additional costs on ordinary people.” Almost sounds believable.

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By David Callaway

20 States Getting Destroyed by Natural Disasters

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Source: usairforce / Flickr

California’s 2020 wildfire season was particularly savage. By the end of that year, about 4% of California’s landmass, some 4.3 million acres, had gone up in smoke from nearly 10,000 wildfires that raged from the northern coastal range to the border with Mexico, and from the hills outside of Los Angeles inland to San Bernardino County.

The fires killed 33 people and turned more than 11,000 structures to ash, including many residences and businesses. The damage was so extensive the Federal Emergency Management Agency distributed more than $103 million in disaster assistance.

FEMA also declared the record-setting California wildfire season a major disaster, one of over 150 major disaster declarations in 2020 and 2021 nationwide as more frequent and severe storms, fires, and floods, wreaked havoc across the country. (This is the  worst natural disaster in every state.)

The number of FEMA disaster declarations every fiscal year — from Sept. 1 to Oct. 30 the following year — has increased from an average of 31 in the decade ending in 1992 to 130 in the decade ending in 2022. Most FEMA disaster declarations are weather related.

Some parts of the country are particularly prone to certain types of disasters: wildfires in the west; heavy storms and tornadoes in the middle parts of the country; hurricanes on the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast. Non hurricane-related flooding caused by heavy deluges can strike anywhere there’s a river or low-lying areas near bodies of water.

The 72 disaster declarations since the start of this calendar year have included FEMA responses to flooding in Vermont and New York; severe storms, damaging winds, and tornadoes in Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Florida; and severe winter weather that caused flooding, landslides, and mudslides in California. These states are among the 20 that have borne most of the brunt of disasters linked to global warming. (Here are the 18 separate billion dollar weather and climate disasters in 2022.)

To determine the states getting destroyed by natural disasters, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data on the impact of natural disasters on residents from the most recent U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey of June 28, 2023 to July 10, 2023. States were ranked based on the percentage of adults who have been displaced by a natural disaster in the past year ending in July 10. Supplemental data on the percentage of displaced adults who have yet to return home and the number of displaced adults by type of natural disaster are also from the survey. The number of major disasters FEMA declared in each state since 1953 is current as of July 2023.

In the past year ending in early July, 2.5 million people nationwide have been displaced because of natural disasters, led by people living in Florida, California, Louisiana, and Illinois. Disasters in California and Florida caused nearly half of these displacements. Hurricanes and fires in these states were the largest sources of displacement.

Here are the states getting destroyed most by natural disasters.

The climate crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border reaches new heights

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(Michael Molinski is a senior economist at Trendline Economics. He’s worked for Fidelity, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo, and previously as a foreign correspondent and editor for Bloomberg News and MarketWatch.)

TIJUANA, Mexico (Callaway Climate Insights) — A crisis is brewing at the U.S.-Mexico border, but this time it’s not caused by immigration policies, a flood of refugees, or crime by drug lords. It’s about the climate.

The increasingly long waits on the Mexican side of both the San Ysidro and Otay Mesa borders has spread to an average wait time of more than three hours this month. Thousands of U.S. and Mexican citizens sit in their cars on idle, spewing fumes while trying to inch up so as not to allow anyone else to cut the line in front of them.

There is no rhyme or reason to the lines, motorists just seize an opportunity and change lanes randomly, often creating new lanes. They run out of their cars just to relieve themselves at one of the few bathrooms near the border, and dart back to their cars.

And during this month of July, temperatures and tempers are at an all-time high…

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By David Callaway

The 12 Cars That Pollute The Most

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Source: Grafissimo / E+ via Getty Images

As the threats from climate change loom larger, many carmakers are offering more fuel-efficient vehicles, including hybrids and electrics. However, several of these companies are still making vehicles that rapidly burn through massive quantities of gasoline.

Average emissions from new vehicles have dropped significantly over the past four decades, but the most egregious gas guzzlers are lagging behind when it comes to fuel efficiency. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the average passenger vehicle emits around 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. The least fuel-efficient vehicles average more than triple that.

To find the least fuel-efficient cars for 2023, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed greenercars.org ratings of 2023 model year cars based on the report GreenerCars 2023: Efficiency and Weight — Not Just Electric vs. Gas — Shape Environmental Impact. Greenercars.org is part of the nonprofit research organization American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). Cars are ranked based on the Green Score, which runs on a scale from 0 to 100, with 100 being least polluting and 0 most polluting. The environmental damage index reflects the cost to human health from all emissions in cents per mile.

The least fuel-efficient vehicles (that are not super luxury like Bugatti or Ferrari) are muscle cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks. Larger, heavier vehicles naturally take more energy to operate and generally consume more gasoline. Vehicles with high performance combustion engines also need a massive amount of power, which equates to burning a lot of fuel.

The least fuel-efficient vehicles are not cheap to purchase or run. Almost all are recommended to use premium gasoline, and most have MRSPs of $70,000 or more. Many of these vehicles have similar, more fuel-efficient models, including hybrid and electric models. (Here is every major automaker’s plan to go electric)

The vehicles with the absolute worst fuel efficiency are the SUVs and pickup trucks that have supercharged engines. These heavy vehicles use a tremendous amount of gas to produce rapid acceleration, high speeds, and considerable torque. (These are the most fuel efficient full-size SUVs)

Click here to see the worst new cars for humans and the environment. 

Click here to see our detailed methodology.

Global warming and the makings of a market crisis

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Source: horkins / iStock via Getty Images

LONDON (Callaway Climate Insights) — This summer’s climate disasters in Europe, the U.S. and Canada have focused financial minds on the prospects that rapidly changing weather patterns could lead to a market crisis, a la the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007.

Both the International Monetary Fund and the respected Chatham House think tank in London came out with warnings this week about the potential for material risks developing, such as food inflation, a real estate crisis or hot-weather pandemics.

Granted, it’s hard to ignore the extreme heat, fires and floods that have plagued the Northern Hemisphere this summer. Organizations such as the IMF are responsible for pointing at risks and climate change is certainly one. And goodness knows, it may take a financial shock to the system such as the financial crisis a decade ago to finally get political and business attention.

But to us, the rapidly deteriorating conditions seem more like a slow-motion car wreck than a harbinger of a shock crisis such as subprime. While that mortgage crisis developed behind the scenes in banking loan books, the climate crisis is on our front pages and video screens. Events like the withdrawal of new homeowner insurance coverage in places such as California and Florida, and the oil industry’s takeover of the global climate conversation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are the inevitable result of us not listening to the drumbeat of warnings over the years. Not a surprise crisis, which is how almost all of them begin.

Climate change is already changing financial markets with new risks and importantly, new opportunities. Like global warming itself this summer, it isn’t some future crisis investors should be focusing on, it’s market conditions right now.

Zeus: European election turmoil threatens climate agenda

. . . . A year after Russia’s Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, sending energy prices soaring across Europe, a backlash against costs tied to any shift to renewable energy is hitting the electorate, writes David Callaway from London. Right-wing candidates are making inroads in many countries, in part by using popular campaigns against anything green. The movement has reached Brussels itself, which until now had been seen as a global leader in the transition and surprisingly comes against the backdrop of the hottest summer in history, with fires raging across Greece and Italy. . . .

Read the full Zeus column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Do you have range anxiety? These kind people want to help

. . . . The lack of a robust charging network in the U.S. has long been seen as a barrier to wide adoption of electric vehicles. Now, seven big automakers have joined forces to step up the number dramatically. It can only be a good thing. Read more here. . . .

. . . . Think that politics is a sideshow when it comes to climate change and trying to fight it? Witness former President Donald Trump’s pledge, if he is re-elected, to “rein in” the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a five-member independent agency with significant influence over climate and energy policies in the U.S. Read more. . . .

Editor’s picks: We need three times as much renewable capacity, says IEA

Three times the current global renewable capacity is needed

Governments around the world should commit to tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 ahead of the UN’s COP28 climate change conference set for late November in Dubai, says the International Energy Agency. In a recent commentary, the IEA says “the single most important lever to bring about the reduction in CO₂ emissions needed by 2030 is to triple the global installed capacity of renewable power by the end of the current decade.” The IEA says its roadmap to next zero makes clear that, massively scaling up a wide range of clean energy technologies this decade, plus doubling progress on energy efficiency is necessary to drive down demand for fossil fuels and reach net zero quickly enough. Solar PV in particular is providing grounds for optimism on the pace of renewable expansion, says the IEA. It’s on course to account for two-thirds of this year’s increase in global renewable power capacity and further strong growth is expected in 2024, the agency reports.

Vital ocean current system could collapse sooner than expected

Scientists are warning of the future collapse of a huge system of ocean currents — and a major tipping element in the climate system. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current — of which the Gulf Stream is a part — could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025, according to research published this week in the journal Nature Communications. The article authors say a weakening in circulation has been reported in recent years, and they estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions. If carbon emissions are not reduced, the system could collapse sooner. The AMOC plays an important role in the global climate system, and scientists have been warning for years of its instability.

Explain that: net zero

. . . . Net-zero emissions, or net zero, will be achieved when all emissions released by human activities are counterbalanced by removing carbon from the atmosphere in a process known as carbon removal. The World Resources Institute says achieving net zero will require a two-part approach: “First and foremost, human-caused emissions (such as those from fossil-fueled vehicles and factories) should be reduced as close to zero as possible. Any remaining emissions should then be balanced with an equivalent amount of carbon removal, which can happen through natural approaches like restoring forests or through technologies like direct air capture and storage (DACS), which scrubs carbon directly from the atmosphere.” According to the WRI, to achieve net-zero emissions, rapid transformation will be required across all global systems — from how we power our economies, to how we transport people and goods and feed a growing population. . . .

Words to live by . . . .

“By the time we see that climate change is really bad, your ability to fix it is extremely limited… The carbon gets up there, but the heating effect is delayed. And then the effect of that heat on the species and ecosystem is delayed. That means that even when you turn virtuous, things are actually going to get worse for quite a while.” — Bill Gates.

 

By David Callaway

States Where the Biden Policies Could Create the Most Jobs

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Source: BulentBARIS / iStock via Getty Images

After narrowly passing through a Democratically controlled Congress along party lines, President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law on Aug. 16, 2022. The law allocates $500 billion in new spending. While it may marginally reduce inflation over the long term, its largest impact will likely be on the U.S. energy grid, as most of the money in it is slated for clean energy initiatives.

Through a range of federal subsidies, including rebates, loans, and tax credits, the IRA provides incentives to households, businesses, and state and local governments to invest in clean energy while moving away from fossil fuels. With nearly $370 billion in clean energy funding, the act marks the most significant action the U.S. has ever taken toward addressing climate change.

Not only could the IRA result in a 40% to 50% reduction in America’s greenhouse gas emissions, as Democrats in Washington have argued, but it could also be a boon for the job market — particularly in hard-hit sectors, like manufacturing. 

Based on reports from different sources, in the first six months after the IRA passed, there were over 100,000 new clean energy jobs nationwide — and that number could exceed 9 million over the next decade. According to the independent, nonprofit clean energy advocacy group, Rocky Mountain Institute, the IRA could create over 1.3 million new jobs in 2030 alone. 

Using data from the Rocky Mountain Institute’s report, The Economic Tides Just Turned for States, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states where Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will create the most jobs. States are ranked by the estimated potential number of new jobs created by the IRA in the year 2030, adjusted for population. Alaska and Hawaii are not included in this analysis. A full explanation of the Rocky Mountain Institute’s methodology is available here.

According to the report, depending on the state, the IRA could create anywhere from 2,000 to 140,000 jobs (measured in job-years) in 2030. Accounting for population, the number of new jobs in 2030 ranges by state from about one for every 250 people to one for every 320 people. Compared against 2022 annual unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, these new jobs could reduce the current number of unemployed by anywhere from 14% to 36%, depending on the state. (Here is a look at the cities that will add the most jobs by 2060, according to economists.)

Some of the states that could add the most clean energy jobs in 2030 currently rely heavily on energy from fossil fuels. North Dakota, a state that could add one new job for every 258 people in 2030, produced nearly 73 metric tons of energy-related carbon dioxide pollution per person in 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration. That is over 390% more than the national average. (Here is a look at the worst states driving the climate crisis.)

Click here to see states here the Biden policies could create the most jobs.

Zeus: European election turmoil threatens climate agenda

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Source: Maxiphoto / iStock via Getty Images

(David Callaway is founder and Editor-in-Chief of Callaway Climate Insights. He is the former president of the World Editors Forum, Editor-in-Chief of USA Today and MarketWatch, and CEO of TheStreet Inc. His climate columns have appeared in USA Today, The Independent, and New Thinking magazine).

LONDON (Callaway Climate Insights) — A year after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through European oil and gas markets and catapulted prices across the continent, a backlash against the renewable energy transition has spread to the electorate.

Even as the continent endures its hottest summer on record, with temperatures over 40°C. (104°F.) and wildfire evacuations in the Greek islands this week, left-wing political leaders are being forced to reconsider actions to shift their economies by a rise in protest against perceived costs and any forms of sacrifice. …

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By David Callaway

20 US Counties Engulfed in Record Drought Right Now

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Source: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images News via Getty Images

Heavy rainfall in June brought some relief to drought-stricken areas of the United State, including parts of New England, the Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes region. But the precipitation missed other thirsty parts of the country that so far this summer continue to swelter under intense summer heat and unusually dry conditions.

The worst drought conditions so far this summer are mostly in Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

To identify the 20 U.S. counties engulfed in record drought right now, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. We listed the 20 counties where at least one-third of the land area was experiencing “exceptional” drought as of the week ending July 11, 2023 — the latest data available. Exceptional drought, or D4, is the most intense level of drought. We also considered “extreme” drought, the second most intense level of drought (D3), in each of the 20 counties. 

In “extreme” drought conditions, there are major crop and pasture losses, fire danger, and widespread water shortages or restrictions. The same conditions characterize “Exceptional” drought conditions except they are more intense and widespread. Further, there are shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells causing water emergencies. Such water emergencies can trigger the highest state of mandatory water restrictions. 

In the 20 counties on the list, about 347,000 people are living in “extreme” drought conditions, 224,000 of whom living in “exceptional” drought conditions. A total of about 12,000 square miles in these most drought-stricken counties in the nation are either in extreme or exceptional drought. (These are 20 beloved foods that could disappear forever because of climate change.)

Eight of the counties with the most intense drought conditions are in Nebraska, six are in Kansas, Five in Missouri, and one in Texas. Interestingly, parts of these states are also designated flood hazard areas. These are the 20 states with the biggest risk of flooding.

Here are the parts of the U.S. engulfed in record drought conditions right now.

Race against time for Biden’s climate law as it turns a year old

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Source: Photo by Drew Angerer / Getty Images

In today’s edition:

— The Inflation Reduction Act turns one next month. Not a moment too soon.
— Reverse migration? Why Americans are moving to climate risk areas such as Phoenix
— What is it costing the U.S. government to plug methane leaks in abandoned oil wells?
— Not on my unspoiled coastline: California residents stunned by secret hydro project
— Lake Mead claws back a third of last year’s water losses
— Ocean heating heads for new highs after record 2022

President Joe Biden’s signature piece of legislation in his first term, the Inflation Reduction Act, turns one year old in three weeks. It’s possibly the most significant legislative economic effort since the New Deal. Has it come too late?

The handshake deal in Congress that allowed passage of the climate transition strategy, which calls for up to $380 billion in government spending and subsidies on clean energy projects, has spurred investment in infrastructure from around the world and copycat programs from Europe to Asia. Soaring consumer investment in electric vehicles puts a human face on what is otherwise a huge win for business, with some 80 new projects announced, as many as in the previous seven years combined, according to the Associated Press.

But at the same time, global warming has ratcheted up the pressure, with record heat waves this summer, disrupting tourism in places such as the Greek Islands, withering crops in the U.S. and messing with supply chains in ways not seen since the Covid lockdowns as workers buckle in the heat.

Scientists estimate that the IRA will help the U.S. reduce emissions by 41% by the end of the decade, which while great, is below the estimate of 50% needed to meet international goals to keep the increase in global average temperature to less than 1.5°C. above pre-industrial levels (It’s currently at 1.25°C.). And despite the investment, projects from offshore wind farms to ocean power and solar power face opposition from many consumers, politicians, and remarkably, environmentalists themselves.

History may ultimately judge the economic climate efforts made in the past year as too little too late. But as the Inflation Reduction Act turns one, this summer it feels like it came not a moment too soon.

Astounding data show Americans moving towards heat, floods and drought…

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By David Callaway

Where Carbon Emissions Are Skyrocketing: All 50 States Ranked

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Source: somkuti / Flickr

With each passing year, the effects of climate change become seemingly more obvious. According to NASA, June 2023 was the hottest June on record for the planet. In the United States, this summer has so far been marred by severe flooding in Vermont, record breaking heat waves in Arizona and Florida, and intermittent air quality alerts across much of the country resulting from thousands of wildfires in Canada. Experts have linked each of these events to man-made climate change.

Despite the increasingly destructive effects of climate change, the United States continues to pump billions of metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. Notably, through the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in August 2022, the Biden administration took unprecedented action to address the climate crisis, allocating nearly $370 billion to the effort. The new law is a crucial step to realizing the administration’s goal of cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. (These are the 25 countries emitting the most Co2.)

Still, it may take years before any meaningful results are realized. Using data from the EIA, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states driving up greenhouse gas emissions the most. We ranked all 50 states by the percent change in total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions between 2020 and 2021, the latest years of available data. The sources of carbon emissions include commercial, industrial, transportation, residential, and power generation. 

From 2020 to 2021, America’s energy-related carbon emissions jumped by 6.9%, or nearly 317 million metric tons. Mississippi, Virginia, and Wyoming are the only three states to report an improvement in greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 to 2021. Among the remaining states, carbon emissions climbed by anywhere from 1.4% to 16.2% over the same period. 

Encouragingly, the most recent national increase in carbon emissions may have been an anomaly. In 2020, America’s carbon footprint was reduced by the COVD-19 pandemic, as shelter-in-place policies reduced demand for energy and the burning of fossil fuels. By 2021, however, rising demand for consumer goods, increased use of coal in the face of rising natural gas prices, and vaccinations that allowed many to return to a more normal way of life resulted in a spike in carbon emissions. 

Longer-term trends in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions further support this argument. Over the five years from 2017 to 2021, carbon emissions fell in all but eight states, declining by 5% or more in nearly half of all states. (Here is a look at the worst states driving the climate crisis.)

Click here to see the states where carbon emissions are going up the most.

Click here to read our detailed methodology.

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