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America’s 19 Fastest Shrinking Big Cities

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Source: helovi / E+ via Getty Images

The U.S. population rose 2.7% over the past five years, from about 327 million in 2016 to almost 332 million people in 2021. Nearly all of the increase was because of immigration. And while some U.S. cities, notably in the South and the West, experienced population surges, other urban areas saw an exodus of residents over that time. Not all of these population declines occurred in the Rust Belt or the Northeast.

To determine the fastest shrinking large cities, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed population data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2021 American Community Survey one-year estimates. We listed all 19 metropolitan statistical areas with at least a 5% population drop from 2016 to 2021. We added seasonally-adjusted December employment figures – used to calculate employment growth from 2016 to 2021 – from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The longer-term geographic shifts in the U.S. are unchanged. Over a quarter of the nation’s population lives in just three states: California, Texas, and Florida, with the latter two states adding the most people. Yet according to our list, even in the most populous states, people took flight from certain metro areas there. (Also see, the 15 countries Americans are moving to the most.)

One state that continues to lose people is West Virginia. Three metro areas that span the Mountain State are among the 19 metros that lost the most people over the past five years. Illinois is also represented with three metro areas on the list. The Prairie State is one of 10 states to have shed  population between 2018 and 2019. Nebraska and Arkansas are each part of two metros on the list. 

Metro areas on this list range from the least-populous Danville, Illinois, with 73,000 residents, to the more populated Corpus Christi, Texas, with 423,000 residents. While not on this list, some smaller population centers are also shrinking. These are America’s disappearing small towns.

Kalamazoo-Portage, Michigan, hemorrhaged the most people by percentage and was the only metro area to record an unemployment increase from 2016 to 2021.

Click here to see America’s fastest shrinking big cities.

Can the EPA really build a $27 billion green bank next year? An interview with Reed Hundt

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Source: Alexander Fattal / iStock via Getty Images

(Bill Sternberg is a veteran Washington journalist and former editorial page editor of USA Today.)

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — Deep inside the new climate law enacted in August is a big-ticket item that has generated relatively little attention. The law creates a $27 billion greenhouse gas reduction fund, most of which appears headed for America’s first “national green bank” to finance clean-energy ventures.

Like regular banks, green banks expect to be paid back, but they have more access to public funding and more flexibility on repayment terms. Their loans are used to leverage private investments in solar power, heat pumps, electric vehicle chargers and other zero-emission projects, primarily at the community level.

The green-bank model has been considered successful in other nations, including Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom. In the United States, more than 20 states and municipalities have established their own green banks, which have combined nearly $2 billion in public money with more than $7 billion in private capital.

The $27 billion federal windfall could supercharge green bank lending, and it “will help vault the United States into a leadership role” by causing as much as $250 billion in total investment, says Raya Salter, founder of the Energy Justice Collective…

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By David Callaway

20 Fast-Growing Megacities Facing Ecological Catastrophe

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Source: MartinM303 / iStock via Getty Images

Contaminated water, poor waste management, unregulated industrial pollution, uncontrolled urban sprawl, severe traffic congestion, degraded natural habitats, floods, droughts, and toxic air. These are all common ecological threats among the world’s largest and fastest growing urban areas. But some cities are better equipped to deal with these threats than others.

There are currently 33 megacities — cities with more than 10 million people — in the world, and 14 more cities are projected to become megacities by 2050. Of the 47 projected megacities, high-income cities with low population growth will be better able to deal with ecological threats over the next 50 years. (Also see the 27 countries that face the worst catastrophic ecological threats.)

However, 20 cities with high population growth, low societal resilience, and substantial ecological threats are of most concern – likely to face future sustainability and security issues, according to the global think tank Institute for Economics & Peace report Ecological Threat Report 2022.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed the 20 cities the report identified as high risk –  some already megacities and some will become megacities by 2050 (marked by asterisk). The report considered several criteria, including population growth, current coping abilities, number and intensity of ecological threats, ranking on the global peace index (GPI), and various measures of violence. We added estimated GDP for each city in 2020 in U.S. dollars from the international think tank City Mayors.

These 20 cities will be home to an estimated 444 million people by 2050, when the global population is expected by the United Nations to reach 9.8 billion. This means nearly one out of 20 people worldwide will reside in these cities. Meanwhile, continued rising sea levels and temperatures caused by human activities will further worsen many of the problems. (Earth’s CO2 level rose every year since climate change became a national issue.)

Of the 20 cities, mostly in the Global South, 14 urban areas (defined as the city plus the surrounding sprawl) are located in Africa or the Indian Subcontinent. Three of the 20 megacities identified are in Latin America, two in Southeast Asia, and one in the Middle East.

Not all the 20 cities on the list face equally challenging threats. Those facing the harshest challenges are: Kinshasa, Nairobi, Lagos, Dhaka, Baghdad, Lahore, Kolkata, and Delhi. “These cities have high projected population growth rates, poor sanitation, lack of infrastructure, high crime rates and substantial ecological threats,” the report notes.

Poor and potentially fatal ambient indoor and outdoor air quality persists in all but one of the listed 20 megacities. These air quality risks range from moderate to hazardous, which can cause respiratory and other diseases that are significant contributors to morbidity and mortality, according to the World Health Organization. 

Ecological and social challenges in many of the world’s megacities are exacerbated by civil unrest, according to the report, the World Bank, and other sources. The instability makes it more difficult for societies and outside organizations to address these ecological challenges. Simply put, the more peaceful a country is, the easier it is to face these problems.

Here are the megacities facing the biggest ecological threats. 

Out of Africa: How COP27 drove fundraising for climate firms tied to the region

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Source: Oleg_P / iStock via Getty Images

In today’s issue:

— Fundraising data show rising interest in African solutions firms as COP27 approached in Egypt
— President Biden’s new climate bill is starting to irritate foreign trading partners
— Climate catastrophes caused more than $115 billion in insured losses this year, far above 10-year average

— Californians, take heart. Here are three places where a gallon of gas is much higher.

The world’s climate finance eyes were on Egypt last month as global leaders met at the COP27 conference, and companies in Africa, or those focused on customers in Africa, made the most of it. A spate of Africa stories hit the climate fundraising market in the weeks leading up to and just after the conference, according to online fundraising researcher KingsCrowd.

One company, Amped Innovation, which makes solar and battery-powered systems that can cheaply connect to appliances and run them for the more than half of Africans estimated to not be on the grid, has raised almost $120,000 through crowdsourcing exchange Republic and is actively raising more, according to Lea Bouhelier-Gautreau, who wrote the company’s October Impact Startup report.

In total, 15 companies raised more than $29 million online from August to September, according to KingsCrowd, which showed continued resiliency in the face of shaky financial markets.

The Africa opportunity is and has always been enormous. Witness how the mobile phone economy grew there years before it did in Western countries, largely because of necessity. Climate solutions should be no different. While Egypt took a lot of criticism — rightly so — for hosting COP27 because of its repressive regime, anything that directs attention to emerging markets like in Africa can’t be all bad.

More insights below . . . .

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By David Callaway

Every State’s Worst Natural Disaster

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Source: Michael Bocchieri / Getty Images News via Getty Images

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa is erupting for the first time in 38 years, an event long-expected, and feared by many. Fortunately, while awe-inspiring, the eruption has caused relatively little serious damage, and has taken no life.

As one of the largest countries in the world, the United States is also one of the most geographically diverse — from deserts to forests to miles of coast line. While this comes with many advantages, this unfortunately leaves the country vulnerable to all kinds of natural disasters.

Different parts of the United States face different types of natural disasters. The West Coast is at risk of wildfires, earthquakes, and even volcanic eruptions. The Southern part of the country is frequently hit with tornadoes, and the East Coast faces the threat of devastating hurricanes every year. These natural disasters not only destroy property and present serious problems to the economy, but also claim hundreds of lives every year. Midwestern areas near rivers are often inundated with massive floods — these are the worst floods in American history.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed government sources on the weather event in each state’s history that caused the highest number of fatalities to determine the worst natural disaster in every state.

Thanks to their geography and location, some states have not faced any mass-casualty weather events. Many other parts of the country have been less fortunate, experiencing massive storms and floods that have claimed the lives of hundreds or even thousands of Americans. Many such events, like the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston, Texas killed so many people that getting an accurate final death toll was virtually impossible, especially during that era.

American weather continues to become more volatile. In 2018, there were 14 weather events that each caused over $1 billion in damage. And in many parts of the country, these weather events could become even more destructive because of global warming — here are places where weather is getting worse because of climate change.

Click here to see the worst natural disaster in every state
Click here to see our methodology

Axed by Elon? Jettisoned by Jeff? Zapped by Zuckerberg? Here’s where you might land

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Source: kcdstm / Flickr
Today’s insights:
– Lost your job in tech? Warm up to the idea of climate tech
– Let’s pray that EU’s plan for plastic is fantastic (and spreads)
– Is Prince William wise to dip his toes into the environmentalist pool?
– When it comes to energy, the French both amaze and confound

If you’re one of the tens of thousands of tech workers whose jobs have disappeared in the current rounds of layoffs by companies such as Twitter, Amazon $AMZN , or Facebook parent company Meta $META , you’re no doubt licking your wounds and thinking about what to do next.

And don’t think you’ll necessarily be headed somewhere else in Silicon Valley or one of its clones — gone are the days when recruiters in the same arena would be lining up to hire talent, with poaching and perks being a big part of the tech-worker world.

So where are the afflicted ex-employees looking? One area is climate tech, which has so far withstood much of the buffeting caused by rising energy costs and general inflation. Also doing reasonably well is investment in the sector, which, reports Eco-Business.com, continues to hover near last year’s historic highs and accounts for more than a quarter of every venture capital dollar invested in the latest quarter, which is higher than 12 out of 16 previous quarters.

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By David Callaway

The Deadliest Volcanic Eruptions in the Last 500 Years

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Source: Justinreznick / E+ via Getty Images

The recent eruption of Hawaii’s Mauna Loa, the world’s largest active volcano, serves as a reminder that volcanoes can also cause natural disasters. What’s more, the most recent eruption of Kilauea, a nearby volcano, has been ongoing since September 2021. Although hot lava continues to gush from Mauna Loa, the volcanic activity is not expected at this time to reach any communities, according to Hawaii County Mayor Mitch Roth. 

While Hawaiian residents are safe, other populations near volcanic eruptions in the past suffered horrific destruction and death. 

To identify the seven deadliest volcanoes since 1500, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the United States Geological Survey report “Which volcanic eruptions were the deadliest?” The estimated death tolls are not limited to the immediate fatalities from the explosion and lava flow, but also the environmental impacts these events had, such as starvation caused by changes in weather patterns or massive tsunamis.

Far from being a rare occurrence, the Smithsonian National Museum of History, Global Volcanic Program, recorded 77 eruptions worldwide in 2022 at 74 different volcanoes. The list includes eruptions until October, so Mauna Loa’s eruption is not included.

Scientists now have the tools to predict if a volcano will explode, although it is not an exact science. Not so in the past, when volcanoes ranked as one of the most deadly natural disasters. Mount Tambora’s eruption in 1815 in Indonesia killed 92,000, mostly due to starvation as the ash spewed into the air lowered temperatures so much that crops failed. (Find out if it was among the deadliest natural disasters of all time.)

All told, Indonesia has suffered through three destructive volcanic eruptions, which should not be surprising considering the Indonesian island chain was created by volcanic activity. In fact, the islands sit on the tops of volcanoes rising from the ocean.

Though the U.S. was the site of some devastating eruptions, it is not on the list of the deadliest volcanic eruptions. The 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington killed 57, making it the most destructive volcanic disaster in U.S. history. (See the deadliest billion dollar disasters in U.S. history.)

Click here to see the deadliest volcanic eruptions in the last 500 years

How the U.S. rail strike vote proves there is no clean way to shut down Big Oil

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Source: madsci / Getty Images

When it comes to the U.S. Congress’s decision to block the impending rail strike and impose a settlement, the climate implications for either side are dire. Railways are far and away the biggest transporters of fossil fuels in America, responsible for almost a third of coal shipments alone.

But the rails are far cleaner than shipping by truck, which by some estimates would require almost a half million more trucks on the road. Railways are three to four times cleaner than trucking, and far more advanced in electrifying their systems.

For Congress, halting the strike is simply a matter of keeping the U.S. economy from shutting down right before Christmas, which would crush supply chains, throw tens of thousands out of work and inflate prices on everything from food and water, as President Joe Biden said, to energy. Behind that are fossil fuels, which are lobbying heavily to keep the trains running.

For climate advocates, the drama around this rail strike should be an important lesson that when it comes to economic stability, there is no clean way to shut down fossil fuels without major global disruption. As Congress is demonstrating, rather painfully this week, we’re going to have to work with Big Oil to make the transition work.

As climate risks to fossil fuel debt grow stronger and renewable energy becomes more accessible, the path for fossil fuels is becoming cleared to even them, and we’ve seen a handful of deals already this year with oil companies buying renewable firms. But it’s a long haul, and for now that’s what railroads are for. . . .

More insights below . . . 

For Latin America, climate reparations hinge on Brazil’s Amazon progress

. . . . Often overshadowed by Africa and small island nations when it comes to climate reparations, Latin America has a legitimate seat at the table, but an unusual hitch in claiming its fair share of any “loss and damage” funding, writes Michael Molinski. Most funding deals are contingent on the countries receiving the money showing some sort of progress in mitigating climate change. But with Brazil’s ruinous path of deforestation in the Amazon basin under Jair Bolsonaro, it’s been difficult to make a case the region is worthy of funding. That’s one of the reasons the entire region is looking with hope to incoming Brazilian leader Luis Inacio Lula da Silva to change the storyline in coming years. . . .

Read the full story

A selection of this week’s subscriber-only insights

. . . . Almost every month over the past year or so came announcements of new U.S. offshore wind projects, complete with vast output numbers. But precisely how many have been given the green light? Two out of 16. Bureaucracy at every level — local, state and federal — is getting in the way. Now an advocacy group has formed to try to get things moving faster. Read more here. . . .

. . . . The arrival of EVs is beginning to hit fossil fuel vehicle sales, especially in China, where long-established brands are under threat. Meanwhile, Tesla’s $TSLA dominant market share is being chipped away as EVs arrive from competitors, particularly from the fossil fuel world. Read more here. . . .

Editor’s picks: WMO’s water woes; plus, costs sink NASA’s new GHG monitoring satellite

NASA cancels greenhouse gas monitoring satellite

Costs and complications have forced NASA to cancel a planned satellite that was going to intensely monitor greenhouse gases over the Americas. The agency said it will continue to watch human-caused carbon pollution, but in different ways, The Associated Press reports. NASA attributed its decision to cancel its low-cost satellite monitoring carbon dioxide, called GeoCarb, to cost overruns. The AP reports the planned budget for the project was $166 million, but the latest NASA figures show costs would balloon to more than $600 million and it was years late, according to NASA Earth Sciences Director Karen St. Germain. The agency said equipment has more than doubled in price and there were non-technical issues that would have added to the tab.

Latest from Mauna Loa: tremors and lava spread

Lava is still flowing down the northeast slope of Mauna Loa, the planet’s biggest active volcano. The USGS reported Thursday morning that the flow front has hit a low-sloping spot and is beginning to spread out and inflate. According to this morning’s update, the agency says: “Our seismic monitoring detects tremor (high rates of earthquakes) in the location of the currently active fissures. This indicates that magma is still being supplied, and activity is likely to continue as long as we see this signal. … There is no active lava within Moku’āweoweo caldera, and the Southwest Rift Zone is not erupting. We do not expect any eruptive activity outside the Northeast Rift Zone. No property is at risk currently.” For the latest views of Mauna Loa, check out the USGS webcam providing a live Image of Mauna Loa’s Summit and the northeast rift zone from Mauna Kea.

Timing is everything: carbon capture, utilization, storage

Carbon capture, storage and utilization are essential solutions to reduce GHG emissions worldwide and to mitigate climate change effects, write the authors of Timing is everything: a real options approach for CCUS investment in the presence of market and technology uncertainty. From the abstract: “While CCS is mature and ready to install, CCU is still in the R&D phase. The rising CO₂ prices in the EU Emission Trading System encourage firms to invest in emission abatement technologies. To find the optimal timing to invest in CCS and CCU, we employ a real options approach that allows for flexibility in the timing of the investment decision. This study shows how the investment in CCS is delayed, compared to traditional investment analysis, due to the anticipated CCU arrival and the CO₂ price uncertainty. The real options model developed in this study can also be adapted to reflect multiple CCS and CCU adoption strategies, using the steps described in this article. Authors: Hanne Lamberts-Van Assche, University of Antwerp; Maria Lavrutich, Norwegian University of Science and Technology; Tine Compernolle, University of Antwerp; Gwenny Thomassen, University of Antwerp; Flanders Make, Ghent University; Jacco Thijssen, University of York; Peter M. Kort, Tilburg University.

Words to live by . . . .

“Live in the sunshine, swim in the sea, drink the wild air.”  — Ralph Waldo Emerson.

By David Callaway

17 World Changing Events That Shaped the Earth as We Know It

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Source: NASA Goddard via images.nasa.gov

Mauna Loa, an active volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island, began erupting in late November for the first time in nearly four decades. There are reports of lava fountains spewing as high as 164 feet into the air. Still, the eruption is not expected to cause any loss of life, nor any lasting impact to infrastructure, besides coating some parts of the island in as much as a quarter inch of ash.

Since the Earth was formed roughly 4.5 billion years ago, it has gone through dozens of major cataclysmic events, including the eruption of supervolcanoes, impacts by comets and asteroids, major tectonic shifts, exposure to cosmic radiation, and more. Most of these took place long before homo sapiens ever walked the Earth.

Some of these events were so violent that they directly ushered in new geologic periods. These were often accompanied by ice ages, mass extinction events, or conversely warming and ecological flourishing. These periods left lasting, major changes to the planet’s species, continental structure, and atmospheric composition. 

For those concerned about the looming threat of global climate change, these events, many of which are now millions of years old, bear grim relevance to today. 

The major extinction events that occurred since life began on Earth, in the majority of cases, share a few attributes, including major changes in CO2 levels and other gases like methane and sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere and an increase in ocean acidification, which can result from higher CO2 levels. 

Since the Industrial Revolution, both carbon concentration in the atmosphere and ocean acidification are increasing at far faster levels than can be explained by cyclical changes. Ocean acidity has increased by 30%, and CO2 levels have roughly doubled compared to preindustrial levels, and the result is the endangerment of tens of thousands of species. These are the animals humans are driving to extinction.

Currently, the planet’s flora and fauna are dying at a much faster rate than is normal in nature. Scientists have warned we could be in the midst of a sixth major extinction event, which unlike previous extinction events is caused by human activity and could worsen if human-related greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked. These are the 26 climate crisis disasters that will get worse if we do nothing. 

To compile a list of the largest geological forces in Earth’s history, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed publications in scientific journals focusing on cataclysmic events in Earth’s history that resulted in sudden, abrupt, and massive environmental impacts. For each event where the date of occurrence can only be estimated, we list the rough number of years it is believed to have occurred before today, and for events where the exact year of the occurrence is known, the year is written out with A.D. notation. 

Click here to see 17 cataclysmic events that changed the Earth forever.

For Latin America, climate reparations hinge on Brazil’s Amazon progress

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Source: luoman / Getty Images

(Michael Molinski is a senior economist at Trendline Economics. He’s worked for Fidelity, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo, and previously as a foreign correspondent and editor for Bloomberg News and MarketWatch.)

BOGOTA, Colombia (Callaway Climate Insights) — The ink is not yet dry on COP27’s historic climate agreement, and already a chorus of voices from Latin America are questioning the promises and the validity of what was actually decided upon in Egypt over the past few weeks.

The main accomplishment at the U.N.’s climate change convention was the creation of a fund for “loss and damage” to directly help those countries damaged by severe weather, high temperatures and sea level rise.

Most Latin Americans have been saying that it’s about time that developed countries pay for the damages they have done to the environment for decades…

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By David Callaway

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