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America’s Disappearing Small Towns

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Source: 22408aaron / Flickr

Results from the 2020 census reveal some notable changes to the U.S. population over the last decade. The U.S. population grew by about 7% from 2010 to 2020. Over the same period, major cities such as Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and San Antonio reported a more than 10% population increase.

As urban populations swelled, however, the rest of the country has suffered steep population declines. More than half of all U.S. counties and county equivalents reported population declines since 2010 – and in many small towns across the country, populations have cratered by over 15%.

Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Unit Estimates Program, 24/7 Wall St. identified America’s fastest shrinking towns. U.S. places are ranked by the percent change in population from 2010 to 2020. We only considered incorporated places with populations between 1,000 and 25,000 on July 1, 2010.

Population change is the end result of two factors: migration and natural change. Migration is the net change of people moving to and from an area, while natural change is the number of births less the number of deaths.

The majority of the fastest shrinking towns are located in the South, including 10 in Mississippi. Economic opportunity is one of the most common reasons people move in the United States, and a lack of jobs in many of the towns on this list may be pushing people away. In most of the 50 fastest shrinking towns, the five-year average unemployment rate is higher than the 5.3% national average. (Here is a look at the states where job openings are disappearing right now.)

For many who are working in these towns, wages appear to be low. Only one town on this list has a higher median household income than the national median of $64,994, and only three have a lower poverty rate than the 12.8% national average. 

The towns on this list also tend to have aging populations. In over half of these places, the share of the population who is 65 or older exceeds the 16.0% national share. (Here is a look at the best U.S. cities for retirees.) 

Click here to see America’s disappearing small towns.

Click here to see our detailed methodology.

Renewable deals start to flow in wake of Biden climate deal

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Source: adamkaz / E+ via Getty Images

In today’s issue:

— Two weeks after Biden signs IRA, pent-up deal demand starts to roll.
— Can contra-rotating turbines spin a new era for offshore wind power?
— As European energy crisis deepens, Brussels considers a once unthinkable solution.
— The list of top companies committed to zero waste in landfills may surprise you.

Two weeks after President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate change bill in U.S. history, the uncertainty removed in the market about America’s new climate ambitions has started to yield real investment.

Honda $HMC and LG Energy Solution announced intentions yesterday to build a new, $4.4 billion electric vehicle battery plant in the next three years, likely somewhere near Honda plants in the Midwest. The deal brings Honda into the EV race in the U.S. along with Ford $F , General Motors $GM and Hyundai, among others.

First Solar $FSLR , the largest U.S. solar panel maker, said this morning it will spend $1.2 billion expanding its manufacturing facilities and supply chains in the country, including a new plant in the Southeast. The Department of Energy awarded $540 million to more than four dozen universities and national labs for clean energy research, particularly into carbon storage and removal.

And even Warren Buffett is getting in on the action, in his own, old-school way. His Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, BRK.A) has raised its stake in Occidental Petroleum $OXY , which although an oil company, last week announced plans to build the largest direct air carbon capture plant in the world. Hey, there’s money in Biden’s IRA for oil company transition also.

The surge in deals, despite renewed weakness in financial markets in the past few weeks, is an encouraging signal to Washington and other governments that private markets will follow smart public policy when it creates the conditions for investment and profit. We’ll continue to provide updates as more deals develop.

More insights below . . . .

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By David Callaway

The World’s 25 Richest Countries

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Source: greenleaf123 / iStock / Getty Images Plus

The United States is often cited as the richest country on Earth. Digging deeper, the justification for this statement comes from the fact that the U.S. has the largest gross domestic product of any nation, at roughly $23 trillion compared to second-place China’s $17.7 trillion. But there are many other ways to measure national wealth.

24/7 Wall St. used a different measure to determine the richest country in the world, gross national income per capita. Data for 193 countries and special regions came from the World Bank. By this measure, the United States barely cracks the top 10. (By contrast, these are the poorest countries in the world.)

Many of the richest countries in the world benefit from having large multinational corporations headquartered within their borders. Even if these companies earn money overseas, that income is counted towards the gross national income of the country where the business is based.

The world economic landscape has shifted to be increasingly more globalized and interconnected. As a result, many companies, including many that are headquartered in one of the nations on this list, have extended their footprint into dozens of countries and grown their valuation to tens of billions of dollars.

Other countries among the world’s richest are financially well off because they have an important natural resource, generally oil, that is valuable and abundant enough to create many billions of dollars worth of economic activity. Conversely, many others have very large and diverse economies that excel in a number of different fields. (Find out if any of the richest countries are also the happiest. These are the happiest countries in the world.)

Living in a wealthy country comes with numerous advantages, perhaps most importantly is health. Those in countries with high incomes are generally able to get access to better health care and food, and generally have very low maternal and child mortality. Most rich nations have a higher average life expectancy than the world average life expectancy.

The special administrative region of China located at China’s southern tip, Macau’s GNI per capita is $117,340 — nearly $100,000 higher than the worldwide GNI per capita. Macau also ranks as one of the world’s healthiest countries with an average life expectancy at birth of 84.2 years, the third highest in the world. Although it is known as the gambling capital of the world, Macau is also considered a tax haven as foreign earnings are not taxed.

Click here to see the richest countries in the world.
Click here to see our methodology.

 

How the UK’s looming energy crisis will overwhelm its next Prime Minister

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Source: xavierarnau / E+ via Getty Images
In today’s edition:
— Britain’s new Prime Minister will soon face the country’s worst energy crisis in a generation.
— Silicon Valley is starting to bet on underground renewable energy.
— Climate change isn’t all bad. Just ask French winemakers.
— So, what will the new U.S. ambassador to the Arctic actually do?

Britain will have a new Prime Minister next week after a six-week leadership race in its ruling Tory party that has all but ignored climate policy, even as the biggest energy shortage in decades is taking shape for this winter.

By most accounts, Liz Truss will be named Conservative Party leader and assume the role of Prime Minister. Truss served several roles in Boris Johnson’s previous government, including environmental minister. But it’s her pro-fracking, anti-solar reputation that is attracting headlines, as campaign promises for tax cuts head toward a painful realization once she becomes PM that government handouts on soaring energy costs are not only going to be necessary, but vital.

As average energy costs are expected to soar 80% in coming months, energy traders are increasingly demanding that regulators and grid operators present emergency plans for the potential day when cross-border energy trading collapses…

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By David Callaway

The Deadliest Billion-Dollar Natural Disasters in US History

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Source: JJ Gouin / iStock via Getty Images

Since 1980, there have been 332 weather disasters in the U.S. that have inflicted at least $1 billion worth in damage. And these events have been getting more frequent over the decades. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, with increasing global surface temperatures the possibility of more droughts and increased intensity of storms are likely to occur. Similarly, floods, freezes, and wildfires could increase in frequency and intensity.

There were 31 storms with losses of at least $1 billion in the 1980s. There were 55 such storms in the 1990s; 67 in the 2000s; 128 in the 2010s; and 51 since 2020. (Here are the worst cities to live as climate change gets worse.)

Considering the significant economic damage these climate disasters inflicted, many have inflicted relatively few fatalities: 308 left fewer than 100 people dead, including 190 that killed fewer than 10 people . But some of these disasters were far deadlier, including the drought and heatwave that baked the central-eastern part of the country in the summer of 1980 and cost 1,260 lives. The disaster also inflicted nearly $38 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars.

To identify the deadliest billion-dollar storms, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database that tracks weather and climate disasters since 1980. The 24 disasters that caused 100 deaths or more were ranked by the number of fatalities. We included the total inflation-adjusted damage, cleanup, and repairs costs.

In total these two dozen weather events killed 10,940 people and cost $712 billion. Five hurricanes were responsible for about 5,200 deaths, nearly half of the deaths. These hurricanes also caused nearly $443 billion in damage, cleanup, and repair costs, representing 62% of the total financial impact of these storms.

Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Maria (2017) were by far the deadliest and most costly U.S. weather-related tragedies on record. Tropical cyclones tend to make landfall in the south or southeast, so these regions tend to have the highest frequency and highest cost of climate disasters. (These are countries where the most people have died in natural disasters.)

Out of the weather events on the list, droughts and wildfires were responsible for 36% of the deaths these disasters caused, followed by winter storms and cold waves at 10%. Severe storms, like tornado outbreaks, hailstorms, and heavy winds and downpours, are the least costly and fatal, responsible for 6% of the deaths and 4% of the costs.

Here are the deadliest billion-dollar natural disasters in US history.

California’s new EV law is bold, unprecedented, and almost entirely impossible

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Source: egdigital / Getty Images

Coming on the heels of President Joe Biden’s success in passing an historic climate bill, California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to ban sale of all gasoline-powered cars by 2035 is a bold, unprecedented, and some would say savvy, political wagon-hitching by a potential presidential candidate in 2024. It sets a new high bar in the race to convert the world’s auto fleet to electric. It’s also impossible.

California is known as a world leader in electric vehicle sales, with about one in six cars currently sold being EVs, and yes, many of them are Teslas $TSLA . But even though several other states are expected to follow California, and automakers such as Ford Motor $F and General Motors $GM are furiously racing to retool manufacturing to adapt to the EV era, corresponding transitions in supply chains, renewable energy, and battery power just won’t be ready by then.

As much as I applaud the naked ambition of Newsom and his advisers, as a resident of Northern California I know all too well how hard it is to move entrenched interests in this state. We are still the seventh-largest oil producing state, after all — despite our renewable energy enthusiasm. We are struggling to keep open our last nuclear power plant because of the current lack of energy on our grids, which yields blackouts on a daily basis somewhere in the state. And despite having more EV charging stations than any other state by far, almost 14,000, we will need many times that to service communities, particularly low income, that need to adapt to electric vehicles. In short, we don’t have enough electricity — yet.

Finally, the new plan, which officials say will cut state emissions 50% by 2040, or 395 million metric tons, will be largely offset by our worsening wildfires, which created 112 million metric tons of emissions in 2020 alone.

Still, this is the type of bold climate leadership that more states — and countries — need to adopt if we are to mitigate global warming. For investors, it creates new timelines and performance metrics for everyone from automakers and battery makers to charging station companies, mineral suppliers, and electric grids. That means new opportunities. So maybe impossible, but worth a try.

Zeus: From cloud-seeding to nuclear reactors – the new investor era of climate action

. . . . As governments and investors deal with unprecedented climate damage this summer — consider how much worse it is even than last summer — they are getting increasingly bold in defensive actions, writes David Callaway. Once controversial technologies such as nuclear are becoming mandatory and even geoengineering is back on the table. What this means for investors is also unprecedented, and risky. Laser fusion, anybody? . . .

Read the full Zeus column

A selection of this week’s subscriber-only insights

. . . . Imagine you’re a pension fund manager in Texas or Florida, and you want to assess the risk of flooding in your real estate portfolio or the potential for wind farms in the Gulf of Mexico. Now imagine having that information shut off from you. That’s the binary world state pension managers in these two states live in these days as their political leaders try to ban them from using environmental, social and governance (ESG) information to run their assets.

In trying to restrict pensions from assessing investments through anything other than fiduciary responsibility to make as much money as possible, these leaders are instead condemning them to missing out on possible huge opportunities in technology, and risks in their own states. Apparently, in an election year, it never occurred to these folks that no asset manager worth his or her salt would even consider an ESG strategy unless it was designed to make more money? . . .

. . . . Amid this year’s scramble for more energy, particularly in the oil and gas industry, wind capacity is getting left behind. S&P Global Market Intelligence reported this week that capacity additions in the second quarter fell 77%, to 945 megawatts, the lowest level of new capacity since 2018. While there is plenty of new capacity in the pipeline, the slowdown is a sign that amid the desperate calls for more energy, investment in renewables at least has been hit by the bear market. The Global X Wind Energy ETF $WNDY , which includes international wind companies, is down about 16% year to date. . . .

. . . . Further to the theory that all climate wins are local, a new international study released today identified 38 Chinese cities that have reduced emissions five years in a row, even as their populations have grown. These so-called “emission peaked” cities, such as Beijing and Taizhou, cut emissions through a combination of energy efficiency and structural change on energy usage, according to a release by the University of Birmingham in the UK, one of the authors. See the database of emerging economy emissions here: CEADs: Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets for Emerging Economies.

The study also points out another 21 cities whose emission reductions came from declines in population and energy usage, which is another way of doing it, we guess. The findings are interesting because they show that despite geopolitics and national headlines, much of the decarbonization work that will be achieved in coming years will be at the municipal level, in the U.S. as well as China and everywhere else. The creation of new tiers of energy efficiency will likely impact levels of investment as well as migration. Expect leaderboards to become more common in energy and environmental circles. . . .

Editor’s picks: Ceres launches new water investment initiative

Ceres launches Valuing Water Finance Initiative

A group of institutional investors are joining sustainable investment group Ceres in urging 72 corporate water users and polluters to value and act on water as a financial risk and drive the necessary large-scale change to better protect water systems. Ceres says the Valuing Water Finance Initiative is “the only global investor-led initiative aimed at moving companies to respond to the global water crisis.” Ceres said in a recent news release that 64 initial institutional investors representing $9.8 trillion in assets under management have committed to the project, which “offers comprehensive guidelines to investors while also considering the full suite of water-related issues, from water availability and quality to board oversight and public policy engagement.” Signatories at launch include financial institutions such as pension funds, mainstream asset owners and socially responsible investors spanning the globe. The companies the initiative is aiming for include Amazon $AMZN , Microsoft $MSFT , Apple $AAPL , Nestle, Unilever $UL , and Archer Daniels Midland $ADM . Click here to see the full list of focus companies Ceres is engaging through this initiative.

Climate law could cut emissions-related costs by up to $1.9 trillion

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law last week, will significantly cut the social costs of climate change, according to a new analysis by the Office of Management and Budget. The analysis says the IRA could reduce costs from climate-related damages by as much as $1.9 trillion. “The Inflation Reduction Act represents the most aggressive action to combat the climate crisis and improve American energy security in our nation’s history,” writes Candace Vahlsing, associate director for climate, energy, environment, and science at the OMB. “Because of the Inflation Reduction Act’s investments, America is on track to decrease greenhouse gas emissions by about 40% below 2005 levels in 2030,” Vahlsing said. That would put the U.S. in a position to meet the goals of cutting greenhouse gasses at least in half in 2030 and reaching net zero by no later than 2050.

Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

The case for closing coal plants at scale

Pressure is building to bring coal-fired power plants worldwide into early retirement, driven mainly by economic and environmental concerns, say the authors of The case for closing coal plants at scale, a special energy report from the World Economic Forum. The report notes that at least four types of business models can be applied to these closures: policy-based, buy-out, repurposing, and renewable energy replacement. “Applying the best business model for a plant closure depends on plant age, utilization, ownership, Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) terms, politics, markets and power system conditions. In some circumstances, a hybrid model may be optimal, combining elements of any of these four models. What’s more, pursuing programmatic plant closures, or closures-at-scale, presents different opportunities for each business model, with the trade-off between value creation and ease of implementation varying by the plant.” Authors: Deb Chattopadhyay, University of Queensland; Brad Handler, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines; and Morgan Bazilian, Colorado School of Mines.

Word to live by . . . .

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.” — Kenneth E. Boulding.

Callaway Climate Insights Newsletter

By David Callaway

From cloud-seeding to nuclear reactors – the new investor era of climate action

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Source: Maxiphoto / iStock via Getty Images

(David Callaway is founder and Editor-in-Chief of Callaway Climate Insights. He is the former president of the World Editors Forum, Editor-in-Chief of USA Today and MarketWatch, and CEO of TheStreet Inc.)

SAN FRANCISCO (Callaway Climate Insights) — I had lunch this week with a German entrepreneur in town raising money for a laser fusion company, which is seeking to create an entirely new — and safe — source of renewable energy through nuclear fusion, not the controversial fission used by our nuclear reactors now.

As with all new scientific endeavors, Moritz von der Linden admitted the process will take billions of dollars of investment and years to build out, and that’s only if his team can prove it works. A huge risk for investors, of course. More on Von Der Linden’s company, Marvel Fusion, to come in later columns as it progresses. But I mention him today because I was struck by his assertion that only dramatic new scientific and financial efforts can help us stop the climate catastrophe we’ve already set in motion. …

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By David Callaway

The Best Cities to Move To

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Source: Art Wager / E+ via Getty Images

Remote work has made it easier than ever before to relocate – even to places you would never consider before. Since the pandemic hit and remote work became widespread, you no longer need to secure a job before pulling up stakes and moving to a new town. Now, all many workers need is a reliable internet connection to do their tasks – and that means they can work anywhere across the U.S. or globe.

A recent McKinsey survey of 25,000 Americans working in a spectrum of professions reported that 35% said they can work from home five days a week. Today, finding a new place to live and work is about more than just good internet access and download speed. And since you do not spend all your time tied to a computer, you will want to enjoy nature or any other activities from time to time. A city with a robust job market also makes it easier to find new employment. The cities on this list offer all those benefits.

To identify the best cities to relocate to, 24/7 Wall St. looked at Money.co’s World Relocation Report, published in June 2022. The top 50 cities around the world, per Best Cities by Resonance Consultancy, were ranked based on their Relocation Score index.

The Money.co’s index comprises nine measures: average annual temperature, average annual precipitation, number of parks, number of restaurants, country’s average life expectancy at birth, average internet download speed, average annual salary, number of job listings per 100,000 people, average sea temperature. These were taken from different resources.

Nine of the top 10 cities are in the U.S., including No. 1, San Francisco. All told, the U.S. has 14 cities on the list. Following San Francisco, Las Vegas, Miami, San Diego, Washington, D.C., Austin, Texas, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Dallas rank two through nine. 

The City by the Bay ranks first in internet speed, which is not surprising considering it is at the heart of Silicon Valley. San Francisco ranks second in its abundance of nature areas and parks. A note of caution: If you are thinking of moving to San Francisco, be prepared to pay handsomely for housing, as the Money.co’s report points out. (These are the U.S. cities with the cheapest housing.)

Looking abroad? Your best bet is Singapore. The city-state with a population of more than 6 million came in at No. 10. Good internet speed and a warm, coastal climate make it a desirable location for expats. Find out which cities have the strongest economies in 2022.

Click here to see the best cities to move to.

The carbon cost debate is about to become real as prices approach €100

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Source: artisteer / iStock via Getty Images

In today’s issue:

— Carbon prices to hit €100, triggering new era of debate in Europe
— How President Biden used the new climate bill to work around the Supreme Court
— The economic impact of China’s heatwave could be worse than possibly imagined
— One month after Biden visit, Saudi’s mull oil production cuts
— Candela, Polestar in milestone electric boat deal

The August surge in natural gas prices tied to Russia’s threat to cut Europe off this winter is causing economic monsoons throughout the global economy. One of them is that corresponding carbon credit prices are approaching €100 ($99.8) for the first time, a milestone sure to spark a new era of debate on the cost of carbon pollution.

Prices briefly topped €98 on Friday and have since backed off, but in the past two years they have more than tripled, as big European polluters buy more carbon credits on the European Trading System (ETS). They do this in large part to pay for having to turn on coal plants again in the face of rising natural gas prices.

The rise threatens Europe’s bold plan to cut carbon emissions by 55% by 2030, as some countries say the costs are too high for them and level charges of market manipulation by speculators, a predictable complaint in any market when prices soar. But higher carbon prices also yield benefits, including making technologies such as carbon storage and removal, or hydrogen production from renewable energy, more competitive.

As natural gas prices hit $10 per million British Thermal Units (BTUs) today for the first time in 14 years, we should expect carbon credits on the ETS to hit €100 soon. They are also approaching £100 ($118) on the new London exchange, according to researcher Ember. (See charts: EU Carbon Price Tracker)

Against this backdrop, it’s difficult to envision a major economic step forward in Europe before the winter. But the long-term benefits of rising carbon prices in fighting global warming are at last starting to appear on the horizon.

More insights below . . . .

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By David Callaway

The 25 Best Political Comedies in Movie History

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Source: Courtesy of Netflix

Nowhere is the relationship between comedy and tragedy more closely entwined than in the history of politics. One can take virtually any political era from the last two eons and walk away either crying at the horror of it all or laughing at the absurdity. The trend continues to this day, whereby major political figures and events are either terrifying or hilarious, depending on how one chooses to look at them. 

For a number of filmmakers, the satirical or comic approach is the best one. That’s given way to an enduring history of political comedies, many of which deliver pointed and often grim messages under a somewhat zany veneer. Some may figure among the highest-grossing R-rated comedies of all time.

To determine the 25 best political comedies, 24/7 Tempo developed an index using average ratings on IMDb, an online movie database owned by Amazon, and a combination of audience scores and Tomatometer scores on Rotten Tomatoes, an online movie and TV review aggregator, as of August 2022, weighting all ratings equally.  Documentaries were not considered.

Click here to see the 25 best political comedies of all time

One recent entry on our list is Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,” in which modern society is too shallow and corrupt to deal with its own impending doom. Looking back to the 20th century, Stanley Kubrick’s classic “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” similarly channels global catastrophe through a satirical lens. In a different mode, Barry Levinson’s “Wag the Dog” depicts the power of fake news in diverting attention away from a presidential sex scandal. (These are the 35 best fictional presidents in movies and on TV.)

Then there’s the work of Armando Iannucci, who continues to balance petty political in-fighting with major geo-political consequence. Efforts such as “The Death of Stalin” and “In The Loop” both offer perfect examples of his unique talents. There may even come a day when historians study his films and others as a way to analyze or understand broader political events. 

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